Forecast Accuracy Comparisons for Indian Trail Weather

Indian Trail Weather provides forecasts that are generated daily, every three hours, from 1AM until 10PM by WxSim software. We also provide forecasts from the National Weather Service. Below are charts comparing the 7PM "next day" forecast that we generate to the 7PM "next day" forecast from the NWS. These forecasts are then compared to the actual observations for that day. The first chart compares the High forecasts, the second chart compares the Low forecasts, and the third chart shows the delta between each forecast and the actual temperatures.

The final chart compares the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) from the forecasts generated each day for the past 30 days to the MAE value for the same period from a year prior. The mean absolute error is an average of the absolute difference between the actual temperature and the forecasted temperature in WxSim forecasts. A lower MAE number means that the WxSim forecasts are closer to the actual temperatures.