Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 101037
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
637 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually shift eastward off the New England
coast through tonight. A southerly flow will continue to
provide warm conditions. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday
morning, as a low pressure system gradually approaches from the
Great Lakes region. It will turn cooler Sunday into early next
week, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers persisting.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Persistent clouds over much of the region but some holes in the
clouds in parts of southern VT, the Berkshires and near and just
south of the Capital Region. Thickening high clouds in the OH
Valley spreading east. Boundary layer ridge axis will build over
our region today and boundary layer winds weaken but remain
west. This suggests the clouds over our region will mix out from
north to south through the day, aided by the strong April sun
as well. The breaking up of the clouds is suggested in sources
of mesoscale guidance, too.

The mid Hudson Valley to NW CT and perhaps the very southern
part of the Berkshires near the CT border may not clear until
later this afternoon and may not completely clear as light south
surface flow could keep some of the cloud cover in place.

Highs this afternoon around 70 to the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Leading edge of deeper cloud cover and moisture expected to
slowly and steadily move east. The timing of the best low level
forcing and deepest moisture should Sunday morning in southern
and western areas and then spreading to the rest of the region
through the day. Highs Sunday around 60 to mid 60s.

The band of moisture slowly and steadily moves east Sunday night
into Monday morning. There is some uncertainty as to the timing
of the exit of the rain and how the coverage of showers
decreases as upper energy dives south off eastern Canada and New
England, providing some upper confluence downstream, supporting
low level ridging to build south and west out of eastern Canada
into New England, maybe into NY. Indicating decreasing coverage
of showers Monday and Monday night as the upper cut off in the
OH Valley and Great Lakes remains somewhat stationary and some
low level drying and cooling spreads south and west across New
England and how far west into NY is uncertain.

There will still be considerable cloudiness across our region
even with the decreasing coverage of showers as midlevel and
upper level moisture will still spread into our region around
the circulation of the upper low in the Great Lakes. Highs
Monday in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Monday night in the lower
40s with some upper 30s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upper level pattern will be dominated by slow moving closed off
upper level lows.  This will make for a cloudy, cooler and
occasionally showery weather pattern across eastern New York and
western New England through much of the long term period.

While there are some model differences regarding the exact location
and movement of the upper level features, most models show show the
main upper level low over the Midwest on Tuesday heading towards the
Northeast and mid Atlantic states for Wednesday. With the expected
cyclonic flow in place, will go with slight to low chc POPs across
our area for Tues-Wed.  Temps will be held down somewhat due to the
clouds and possible showers, especially by Wednesday, as the lower
height and cooler temps aloft keep surface temps a little lower.
Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s for Tuesday and upper 40s to
upper 50s for Wednesday.  Overnight lows should mainly be in the 30s
and 40s.

The pattern isn`t very clear for the late week.  While the initial
upper level low may try to exit to the east, another upper level low
located offshore New England may block the flow pattern.  In
addition, another closed off disturbance could allow be approaching
from the northwest at some point late in the week as well.  It`s too
difficult to tell this far in advance how these features will all
interact with each other.  For now, will keep slight to low chc POPs
in the forecast due to the nearby disturbances and expected cyclonic
flow,  with a partly to mostly cloudy sky for Thursday and Friday.
Will keep temps close to the model blend, which allows for valley
highs in the upper 50s and lows in upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IR satellite imagery show some lower clouds of around 1500-3000
ft have been building northward through the overnight hours.
These clouds have overspread much of the area and may allow for
some periods of MVFR cigs this morning, especially for the next
few hours.

Once daytime mixing establishes itself, these clouds should
dissipate/mix out towards the mid to late morning hours. It may
take longest for this to occur near KPOU. By afternoon, it
should be back to VFR conditions for all sites with just some
passing cirrus and a few cumulus clouds.

There should be just some increasing high level clouds for this
evening, but some lower clouds will start to move back into the
area for tonight. MVFR cigs should return by later tonight for
all sites, although it may take until the very late night hours
or early morning on Sunday for this to occur further north at
KALB/KGFL. Any showers will likely hold off until after sunrise
Sunday.

Light south to southeast winds are expected today, generally
under 10 kts.  Winds will be very light or calm for tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will gradually shift eastward off the New England
coast through tonight. A southerly flow will continue to
provide warm conditions. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday
morning, as a low pressure system gradually approaches from the
Great Lakes region. It will turn cooler Sunday into early next
week, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers persisting.

Minimum RH values this afternoon are forecast to be around 30
to 45 percent, increasing to maximum values of between 90 and
100 percent tonight. RH values Sunday afternoon are expected to
be above 60 percent with rain moving into the region

Winds through Saturday will be south at less than 15 mph. Winds
will become southeast tonight at less than 15 mph and continue
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With continued dry weather in place through tonight, river and
stream levels will remain fairly steady through at least the
first half of the weekend. Some rain is expected Sunday into
Sunday night, with the chance for some additional rainfall into
early next week. At this point, widespread heavy rainfall is not
anticipated (most spots should see around a third of an inch to
three quarters of an inch), and any rainfall is much needed due
to the recent dry conditions. No flooding is expected, with
only minimal river rises expected into early next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion