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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 282322 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 722 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually come to an end this evening from northwest to southeast. Drier and gradually warmer weather returns Sunday and continues through early next week. A wetter, more active pattern could return mid week through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... .UPDATE...Just a few small clusters of showers remain over parts of southern Berkshire, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. These showers will diminish over the next 1-2 hours with loss of daytime heating. Dry conditions expected by 9 PM. Observations indicating surface dewpoints are still in the lower 60s from around the Hudson Valley eastward. Another boundary will move across the area this evening, bringing lower humidity levels in its wake. Dewpoints west of the Hudson River are mainly in the lower 50s. .PREVIOUS[0332]...Our upper-level trough axis will depart the region into this evening with any lingering showers and embedded thunderstorms from this afternoon coming to an end from northwest to southeast. In its wake, drier air as seen on the latest visible and water vapor satellite imagery across southern Ontario into western New York will filter into the region leading to a gradual decrease in cloud cover as surface high pressure builds into the mid- Atlantic region. Wind will trend light to calm tonight as well which could result in some localized patchy fog, especially in areas that saw adequate rainfall today. Lows tonight will dip into the mid-40s to mid- 50s, which is right around seasonable levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A very nice second half to the Memorial Day weekend is expected as surface high pressure and upper-level ridging take shape across the region. This will result in two days of mostly sunny weather with a gradual warming trend. The strength of the upper- level ridge will keep any weather features up closer to the US/Canada border through Monday night. 850 hPa temperatures will rise to +11 to +13C on Sunday resulting in high temperatures reaching the lower 70s to lower 80s in most areas with perhaps a few upper 60s across the highest peaks. 850 hPa temperatures then rise to +16 to +18C on Monday which should result in highs reaching the upper 70s to around 90 degrees. Humidity levels will begin to rise heading into Monday as dewpoints rebound back to the mid-50s to lower 60s. At this time, heat indices will remain below heat advisory criteria through Monday, only peaking to around 90 degrees. Lows Sunday night will dip into the 50s for most areas with lows Monday night in the upper 50s to upper-60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term period opens under the influence of upper level ridging and sfc high pressure. High temperatures will be 10-15F above normal with widespread upper 80s and low 90s in the lower Hudson Valley and Capital District cities. Dewpoints in the mid 60s combine with high temps for a muggy, summer-like day. Winds will be light out of the northwest under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Tuesday night, model guidance suggests a backdoor cold front will move into the region from the northeast, bringing chance PoPs and shifting the wind to northeasterly and easterly, ushering in cooler and somewhat drier air. This boundary will also serve to support a slight chance of thunder for northern regions from the Adirondacks east to southern VT Tuesday evening. Lows Tuesday night drop into the mid 50s to near 60F throughout the region. Wednesday brings a shift in the large scale pattern as a frontal passage signals the departure of the weakened upper ridge. The amplified upper level pattern of the previous week looks to be replaced by a more zonal pattern with smaller amplitude disturbances. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s under partly cloudy skies with light southerly to southwesterly winds. Thunderstorms may become widespread in the afternoon and evening following peak diurnal heating. Wednesday night will be similar to Tuesday with lows in the mid 50s to near 60F along the Hudson River. Thursday and especially Friday return to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and low to mid 70s on Friday. Persistent chance PoPs have been included for both days under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly winds. An occasional thunderstorm may be possible after peak diurnal heating in the afternoon or evening both days. Overnight lows range from upper 40s in higher terrain to upper 50s along the immediate Hudson Valley. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Conditions are currently VFR at all TAF sites. With showers having moved off to the southeast of the region, some bkn/ovc cigs are still present at ALB/POU/PSF, but are well above MVFR levels and should lift into the evening. Cigs are expected to remain high and vsbys unrestricted through the TAF period to 00Z Monday, with the exception of some possible fog or low clouds in the early morning hours around 09-12Z at POU/PSF from due to high sfc moisture from antecedent precipitation combined with calm, clear conditions. Winds are currently light at all terminals and should remain light and variable through the TAF period to 00Z Monday. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... In the wake of Saturday showers and embedded thunderstorms, dry weather is expected through the early part of next week. Shower chances increase heading into the middle part of next week. RH values will rebound to 85 to 100 percent tonight, then lower to 30 to 45 percent tomorrow. RH values rebound to 80 to 100 percent Saturday night. Wind will trend light to calm tonight, then be out of the west to southwest Sunday at 5-10 mph. Wind then trends light and variable again Sunday night. && .HYDROLOGY... The showers and embedded thunderstorms from Saturday brought some locally heavy rainfall and minor rises to area rivers and streams, though no widespread flooding issues are expected for the remainder of the afternoon. Dry weather returns tonight and will continue through the early part of next week. Shower chances increase once again heading into the middle part of next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Rathbun