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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 181025 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 625 AM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Sunshine this morning will give way to clouds this afternoon with an increased chance for some showers, mainly north and west of Albany. A series of disturbances will pass across the region tonight through Saturday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong to severe on Saturday. Drier weather looks to return on Sunday but it will be warm. Rain chances return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE... As of 625 AM EDT, forecast remains on track today. Cirrus clouds are beginning to spread in from the west with a gradual increase in clouds expected throughout the day. Latest CAMS still suggest some light rain showers are possible this afternoon for areas mainly north and west of Albany. Just some minor updates to pops in the event sprinkles do occur for areas farther south and east this afternoon and evening. It is a cool/chilly start for some with temperatures ranging from 38 in Old Forge to 56 at Duanesburg. Previous Discussion: We will start out today dry with sunshine and some passing high clouds with the upper-level ridge and surface high pressure system positioned over the region. Over the course of the day, the surface high will push to our east while the ridge flattens and an upper-level shortwave approaches from the west. This will lead to a gradual increase in clouds. A weakening MCS, located across the Upper Great Lakes this morning and within the shortwave, will push eastward across our region this afternoon and could bring some light rain showers to areas mainly north and west of Albany. Guidance shows little if any instability across the region during the afternoon, so thunder is not expected with this activity. The gradual increase in low- level moisture will send dew points into the 50s by the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the lower 70s across the higher terrain to the lower 80s along the Hudson Valley. Tonight, the shortwave will depart to the east, but additional shower activity will be possible, mainly dynamically driven by increasing low-level moisture, divergent flow in the mid-levels and an approaching 80-110 kt upper-level jet. There is some model uncertainty regarding coverage but at least some scattered activity will be possible. Instability will increase but remain low (generally under 300 J/kg) so expecting only isolated coverage of thunderstorms. With the clouds and additional moisture, it will be a milder night with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Uncertainty remains high on Saturday as an upper-level trough moves into the region. The latest guidance has trended warmer but not as humid (suggesting the atmosphere can mix itself out during the day). This could lead to weaker instability than previously thought. However, shear will remain high so organized showers and thunderstorms remain possible (a common low CAPE/high shear environment). The question still remains the amount of coverage and instability as CAMS all show various solutions with inconsistencies among each model run. Will continue to run with chance pops and wording of `scattered showers` with at least isolated thunderstorm potential. The latest SPC forecast places the entire region in a marginal risk for severe weather with some of the strongest storms capable of producing hail and damaging winds. Trends will continue to be monitored. Highs Saturday look to reach the lower 70s to mid- 80s. Activity should gradually wind down Saturday night with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Weak ridging builds in for Sunday with continued warm and slightly humid conditions. Guidance suggests some isolated shower or thunderstorm activity may be possible during the afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain, but we will keep the forecast dry for this update as there is a lack of a trigger and we anticipate instability to remain rather weak. High temperatures look to reach the mid-70s across the higher terrain to the mid- to upper 80s in the valleys. Sunday night looks to remain dry as well with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Mean upper troughing and upper energy gradually builds east as tropical moisture tracks just south of our region. Increasing warm advection and low level moisture advection through Monday with instability and the axis of deepest moisture most likely in western NY/PA through the afternoon Monday, building east through Monday night into Tuesday morning. So, considerable sun through Monday afternoon, with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms perhaps just reaching the Schoharie valley, western Mohawk Valley and southwestern Adirondacks. Highs Monday in the 80s with near 90 Hudson Valley and NW CT and lower 80s higher terrain. Diurnal cooling Monday night with stabilization of the atmosphere and weakening low level forcing Monday night suggests just scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms building east through our region Monday night with humid conditions. Upper jet structure evolves in a potentially troubling manner, with our region in the right entrance region of a potentially very strong upper jet and the 500 hPa having somewhat of a negative tilt. Considering the moisture and instability ahead of the cold front, will have to watch for strong thunderstorms and locally quite heavy rain. The problem is that there are still considerable disagreements in sources of guidance/ensembles as to the timing of the cold front Tuesday. The timing will determine what areas can warm enough to maximize destabilization and what areas will see the axis of maximum moisture within that destabilization zone along and ahead of the cold front. Quite a tight boundary layer thermal and moisture boundary will provide enhanced low level forcing, independent of the instability and moisture, adding to the potential for the strong thunderstorms and heavy rain potential. So, siding with slower movement to the front, which a slight majority of guidance/ensembles suggest. This would suggest morning showers and thunderstorms in western areas and a period of mixed clouds and sun in eastern areas with convective debris and a few morning showers. Temperatures possible not reaching 70 Tuesday in western areas as the showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect those areas in the morning along with the passage of the cold front. Eastern areas should warm to around 80 to lower 80s with a few mid 80s in the mid Hudson Valley. Indicating showers likely and scattered thunderstorms most everywhere Tuesday afternoon. Any scattered showers and storms should end Tuesday evening and night and cold advection spreads across the region. Dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 70s and cooler in higher terrain. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will build east of our region through this evening. Slow and gradual increase in low level moisture and temperatures reaching dew points around daybreak could result in some intervals of fog between 08Z-12Z at KGFL and KPSF. Otherwise, VFR at all TAF sites through this evening, with high clouds increasing this afternoon and evening. As a warm front approaches, some scattered showers could reach the TAF sites this evening, but quite scattered. Including PROB30 for showers with MVFR visibilities and VFR ceilings this evening. Winds will be light and variable to calm through mid morning. A southerly flow will develop mid morning and continue through the afternoon at 5 to 10 Kt. Winds will diminish below 6 Kt this evening. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunshine this morning will give way to clouds this afternoon with an increased chance for some showers, mainly north and west of Albany. A series of disturbances will pass across the region tonight through Saturday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Some storms may be strong to severe on Saturday. Drier weather looks to return on Sunday but it will be warm. Rain chances return early next week. Minimum RH values today will generally be between 35 and 50 percent. RH will increase to around 85 to 100 percent tonight. RH values will be a bit elevated on Saturday, in the 40 to 60 percent range. Wind will become south to southwesterly through tonight at 8 to 16 mph with some higher gusts possible, especially along the Hudson Valley. Wind on Saturday will be out of the west- southwest at 10-20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Sunshine this morning will give way to clouds this afternoon with an increased chance for some showers, mainly north and west of Albany. A series of disturbances will pass across the region tonight through Saturday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Widespread hydro issues are not expected, but local downpours are possible and may lead to ponding of water and minor river rises in some areas. Sunday looks to be drier but rain chances increase again early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV/Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...JPV/Rathbun