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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 250527 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 127 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and some thunderstorms will increase on Sunday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Unsettled weather will persist through early next week, as a cold front will be very slow to move across the Northeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... .UPDATE...Satellite imagery indicating mid level clouds moving in rather rapidly from the west, so sped up increase in cloud cover overnight and subsequently removed mention of fog with the clouds increasing quicker. Temperatures will likely hold fairly steady through the rest of the night after the clouds move in. .PREVIOUS[1102]...The ridging across the region will be surpressed as an upper low and deepening trough approach. Clouds will be on the increase overnight with mostly clear much of the evening. The mostly clear skies along light and variable to calm winds will allow temperatures to drop down into mainly the 40s by late this evening, then they are expected to hold rather steady for the overnight. Some patchy fog will be possible overnight in locations favorable for its development. Upper low in the western Great Lakes will approach and as warm advection increases, mid and high clouds will spread across our region, especially after midnight. Some radiational cooling this evening will help temperatures drop, and then temperatures should hold steady or slowly drop through daybreak. Lows in the 40s with around 40 in parts of the southern Adirondacks and Lake George Region to southern VT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper low helps develop a northern stream mean upper trough with axis west of our region Sunday through Tuesday. The upper low will track through the southern periphery of the upper trough Sunday into early Monday. Boundary layer winds will become southwest and increase through the day Sunday as the upper low and associated upper dynamics and upper level jet segment tracks just south of our region. Much of our region will be in the left exit region of an upper jet segment and some instability and shear will be present south of the Capital Region through southern Berkshires and NW CT late Sunday afternoon and evening. CAPEs Sunday afternoon could approach 1000 j/kg from the eastern Catskills through mid Hudson Valley, southern Berkshires and NW CT with mean 0-6km shear over 40Kt. Low level forcing will be lacking as there is very weak cold advection and boundary layer equivalent potential temperatures gradient is very weak. Still, if any thunderstorms form, some could be strong to marginally severe with isolated damaging winds. SPC put southern areas in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. Highs Sunday in the 60s with around 70 to lower 70s mid Hudson Valley and NW CT and around 60 to lower 60s in higher terrain. Coverage of showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms decreases through Sunday evening and night. Another upper impulse within the mean northern stream upper troughing approaches Monday into Tuesday with another upper jet segment tracking south of our region, putting our area in the left exit region of the upper jet. Continued strong southwest boundary layer winds in our region and increasing upper dynamics will support additional development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Low level forcing will once again be weak with such slow and gradual cooling at the boundary layer but some potential breaks in the clouds and peeks of sun Monday could boost temperatures into the upper 60s to lower 70s and around 60 to lower 60s higher terrain. The best coverage of showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be along and north of I-90 as the midlevel dry slot will build east of our region and the upper deformation moisture and dynamics will dominate. Still isolated showers and storms in southern areas, too. Coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the entire region decreases Monday evening and night. The mean northern stream upper trough axis builds just slightly more east through Tuesday with more upper energy supporting more development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, again mainly along and north of I-90 but some isolated to scattered activity in southern areas. Highs Tuesday in the mid 60s to near 70 with some 50s in higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad upper level troughing will be in place over the Great Lakes and Northeast to open the long term period bringing cool and unsettled weather through Wednesday. Troughing exits to the northeast beginning Wednesday night, and is replaced by moderate upper ridging and surface high pressure centered over the region, yielding clear and dry conditions through Friday. Tuesday night, somewhat elevated dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s and partly to mostly cloudy skies effectively limit radiational cooling, resulting in lows in the mid to upper 40s across the region. Shower activity is possible due to cooler air aloft within the upper trough, with the highest likelihood of showers over the southwestern Adirondacks and central/western Mohawk Valley due to the presence of lake-enhanced moisture. Showers persist into Wednesday, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and low to mid 60s at lower elevations, about 5-10F below average. Winds increase out of the northwest, bringing in drier air with dewpoints falling to the upper 30s to mid 40s. PoPs diminish after Wednesday evening as heights rise aloft and surface high pressure builds in from the west. Increasingly clear skies and light winds at night allows for effective radiational cooling and near to below average temperatures. Lows Wednesday night range from the upper 30s in high terrain to mid 40s along the Hudson River. Highs Thursday remain below average with upper 40s to mid 50s in high terrain and upper 50s to mid 60s at lower elevations. Thursday night brings more cold conditions with lows in the mid to upper 30s in high terrain and upper 30s to low 40s elsewhere. Dry weather likely continues into Friday with increased sun bringing warmer temperatures to northern portions of the forecast area. Highs will remain slightly below average with mid 50s to low 60s in high terrain and low to mid 60s at lower elevations. Beyond Friday, eyes turn toward the tropics as whatever remains of Ian may move into the region. At this lead time, there is low confidence about the track or any extratropical transition, but chances for rain increase into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 06z/Mon...VFR conditions will start the TAF period until at least 18z/Sun with mid-level clouds overhead. Bases will start between 10-15 kft and lower closer to 5 kft by 18z/Sun. Sunday afternoon and evening will consist of on-and-off showers at all TAF sites with a few pockets of heavier showers also possible. Maintained PROB30 groups for all sites to give a range of when heavier showers could occur. A rumble of thunder is also possible with KPOU the more favorable site at this time. Cigs could trend into the MVFR range when heavier showers occur along with vsbys in the IFR/MVFR range. Shower activity should come to an end by 06z/Mon. There is then an indication that low clouds and/or fog develop at most if not all sites between 00z-06z/Mon. Low clouds are currently more favored as there should still be a lingering low-level wind in place. For now, have placed KGFL/KPSF in an IFR deck with KALB/KPOU in MVFR. Wind will remain light to calm overnight then be out of the south to southeast at 6-12 kt on Sunday. Wind will become south to southwest Sunday evening at 4-8 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...IAA/NAS/JPV SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Rathbun