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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
754 FXUS61 KALY 170224 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 924 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will taper off overnight, with some clearing and milder temperatures expected Friday as weak high pressure builds in. An approaching cold front will bring snow and rain showers Saturday into Saturday night. A wave of low pressure may track close enough to bring accumulating snow to areas mainly south and east of Albany late Sunday into early Monday, followed by bitterly cold air for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: - Spotty light snow will bring locally slippery travel conditions through this evening. Discussion: .UPDATE...Intermittent light snow continues across the area through this evening, with webcams indicating dustings in many spots. Untreated roads could become slippery with temperatures in the 10s to lower 20s, otherwise minor impacts with most areas receiving less than a half inch. The upper level disturbance passes east overnight, with light snow ending. Only minor changes with this update. .PREV DISCUSSION[0624]...Radar and obs indicate intermittent light snow falling across much of the area early this evening. Best chance for a half inch to one inch of accumulation will be in some higher terrain spots. Surface dewpoints depressions are still around 5-10 degrees in lower elevations, which will result in light snow intensity and only a dusting to half inch of accumulation. Overall no significant changes with this update. Some clearing may develop toward daybreak, especially within the Hudson River Valley. Should this occur, temps may drop off rapidly around daybreak into the single digits and lower teens, with mid/upper teens expected where clouds persist. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Snow and rain showers expected Saturday, with accumulations up to 2-4" possible across the SW Adirondacks. Discussion: Some snow showers may persist across portions of the western Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks Friday morning, otherwise expect a mix of clouds and some afternoon sunshine, with best chances for sunshine across the mid Hudson Valley. Slightly milder with max temps reaching the lower/mid 30s for valley areas from Albany south and east, with mid 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Fair and chilly Friday night, with lows in the teens to lower 20s, although some locally colder min temps could occur where skies remain clear. Cold front approaches from the west Saturday. Gusty south winds will develop ahead of the front, with some gusts of 25-35 mph within north/south oriented valleys. Precipitation is expected to develop ahead of the front around midday Saturday, with snow initially, then changing to rain in most valley areas from Albany south and east by late afternoon. Snow will likely linger across the SW Adirondacks, and with some orographic enhancement, amounts of 2-4 inches will be possible. Elsewhere, generally an inch or less is expected where snow initially occurs. It will be milder Saturday, with highs reaching the mid 30s to around 40 in many valley areas, with mainly upper 20s to lower 30s across higher elevations. Showers should end as snow Saturday night, with some additional minor accumulations (perhaps 1-2") across some upslope areas of the southern Greens and Berkshires. Lows by daybreak Saturday in the teens and 20s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: - Increasing chances (30-50% NW CT, 10-30% eastern Catskills to Albany/Glens Falls and southern VT) for ~3"+ snowfall late Sunday through early Monday from coastal low. - High confidence in bitterly cold temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, with minimum wind chills of -10 to -20 F. Discussion: Guidance has trended closer to the coast with developing low pressure wave on passing cold front for late Sunday through early Monday. This has allowed WPC chances for >0.25" melted snow/sleet to increase for areas mainly south and east of Albany/Glens Falls and southern VT, with probabilities as high as 30-50% across NW CT. Will have to continue to watch trends with this system, as a plowable snowfall may occur for some areas south and east of Albany late Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Aside from the possible coastal low and snow, highest confidence in long term is frigid temperatures regionwide for late Monday through Thursday. Daytime highs should only reach the single digits and teens Tuesday-Wednesday, with overnight lows generally 5 to 15 below zero across most higher elevations, and 5 above to 5 below zero in valley areas. Brisk winds most likely will produce wind chills (or "Feels-like" temperatures) between 10 and 20 below zero for at least Monday and Tuesday nights in most areas. Cold Weather Advisories will likely be needed for many areas. Lake Effect snowbands are also expected across portions of the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley Monday into Tuesday. Depending on the exact orientation and inland extent of these bands, heavy snowfall amounts could occur in some of these areas. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 00z Saturday...A weak disturbance will bring occasional light snow to the TAF sites through this evening. Conditions will mainly be MVFR although brief periods of IFR vsby may occur especially at KPOU/KPSF. Dewpoint depressions are still around 5-10 degrees, so low levels are relatively dry and will result in light/intermittent snowfall. After the snow ends overnight, BKN-OVC cigs will persist, but with likely improvement to VFR. There may be a few brief periods of MVFR cigs, but not high enough confidence to mention in TAFs. VFR conditions should prevail on Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds in. Winds will be southerly around 5-10 kt this evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt overnight. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN...FZRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula NEAR TERM...KL/JPV SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...JPV