Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 282322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually come to an
end this evening from northwest to southeast. Drier and
gradually warmer weather returns Sunday and continues through
early next week. A wetter, more active pattern could return mid
week through the end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Just a few small clusters of showers remain over parts
of southern Berkshire, Dutchess and Litchfield Counties. These
showers will diminish over the next 1-2 hours with loss of
daytime heating. Dry conditions expected by 9 PM. Observations
indicating surface dewpoints are still in the lower 60s from
around the Hudson Valley eastward. Another boundary will move
across the area this evening, bringing lower humidity levels in
its wake. Dewpoints west of the Hudson River are mainly in the
lower 50s.

.PREVIOUS[0332]...Our upper-level trough axis will depart the
region into this evening with any lingering showers and embedded
thunderstorms from this afternoon coming to an end from
northwest to southeast. In its wake, drier air as seen on the
latest visible and water vapor satellite imagery across southern
Ontario into western New York will filter into the region
leading to a gradual decrease in cloud cover as surface high
pressure builds into the mid- Atlantic region. Wind will trend
light to calm tonight as well which could result in some
localized patchy fog, especially in areas that saw adequate
rainfall today. Lows tonight will dip into the mid-40s to mid-
50s, which is right around seasonable levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A very nice second half to the Memorial Day weekend is expected
as surface high pressure and upper-level ridging take shape
across the region. This will result in two days of mostly sunny
weather with a gradual warming trend. The strength of the upper-
level ridge will keep any weather features up closer to the
US/Canada border through Monday night. 850 hPa temperatures will
rise to +11 to +13C on Sunday resulting in high temperatures
reaching the lower 70s to lower 80s in most areas with perhaps a
few upper 60s across the highest peaks. 850 hPa temperatures
then rise to +16 to +18C on Monday which should result in highs
reaching the upper 70s to around 90 degrees. Humidity levels
will begin to rise heading into Monday as dewpoints rebound back
to the mid-50s to lower 60s. At this time, heat indices will
remain below heat advisory criteria through Monday, only peaking
to around 90 degrees.

Lows Sunday night will dip into the 50s for most areas with lows
Monday night in the upper 50s to upper-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term period opens under the influence of upper level
ridging and sfc high pressure. High temperatures will be 10-15F
above normal with widespread upper 80s and low 90s in the lower
Hudson Valley and Capital District cities. Dewpoints in the mid
60s combine with high temps for a muggy, summer-like day. Winds
will be light out of the northwest under mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies.

Tuesday night, model guidance suggests a backdoor cold front
will move into the region from the northeast, bringing chance
PoPs and shifting the wind to northeasterly and easterly,
ushering in cooler and somewhat drier air. This boundary will
also serve to support a slight chance of thunder for northern
regions from the Adirondacks east to southern VT Tuesday evening.
Lows Tuesday night drop into the mid 50s to near 60F throughout
the region.

Wednesday brings a shift in the large scale pattern as a frontal
passage signals the departure of the weakened upper ridge. The
amplified upper level pattern of the previous week looks to be
replaced by a more zonal pattern with smaller amplitude
disturbances. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to
upper 70s under partly cloudy skies with light southerly to
southwesterly winds. Thunderstorms may become widespread in the
afternoon and evening following peak diurnal heating. Wednesday
night will be similar to Tuesday with lows in the mid 50s to
near 60F along the Hudson River.

Thursday and especially Friday return to more seasonal
temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and
low to mid 70s on Friday. Persistent chance PoPs have been
included for both days under partly to mostly cloudy skies with
light westerly winds. An occasional thunderstorm may be possible
after peak diurnal heating in the afternoon or evening both
days. Overnight lows range from upper 40s in higher terrain to
upper 50s along the immediate Hudson Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions are currently VFR at all TAF sites. With showers
having moved off to the southeast of the region, some bkn/ovc
cigs are still present at ALB/POU/PSF, but are well above MVFR
levels and should lift into the evening. Cigs are expected to
remain high and vsbys unrestricted through the TAF period to 00Z
Monday, with the exception of some possible fog or low clouds
in the early morning hours around 09-12Z at POU/PSF from due to
high sfc moisture from antecedent precipitation combined with
calm, clear conditions.

Winds are currently light at all terminals and should remain
light and variable through the TAF period to 00Z Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of Saturday showers and embedded thunderstorms, dry
weather is expected through the early part of next week. Shower
chances increase heading into the middle part of next week.

RH values will rebound to 85 to 100 percent tonight, then lower
to 30 to 45 percent tomorrow. RH values rebound to 80 to 100
percent Saturday night.

Wind will trend light to calm tonight, then be out of the west
to southwest Sunday at 5-10 mph. Wind then trends light and
variable again Sunday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The showers and embedded thunderstorms from Saturday brought
some locally heavy rainfall and minor rises to area rivers and
streams, though no widespread flooding issues are expected for
the remainder of the afternoon. Dry weather returns tonight and
will continue through the early part of next week. Shower
chances increase once again heading into the middle part of
next week.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...JPV/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun
HYDROLOGY...Rathbun

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion