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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
327 FXUS61 KALY 220537 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 137 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be near the Mid Atlantic Region tonight with mostly clear and cool conditions. The surface high will move southeastward away from the coast on Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and a warm southwest flow. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday before dry and seasonable conditions return on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 124 AM EDT...Strong ridging remains in place along the eastern seaboard with surface high pressure located close to the region. IR satellite imagery continues to show clear skies in place over the region, with the nearest clouds being some high cirrus clouds over Ontario, western New York and Lake Ontario. Skies will be fairly clear through the remainder of the night, with perhaps some of these thin high cirrus clouds reaching western areas towards daybreak. The clear skies and calm winds is starting to allow some radiational fog to form, especially in valleys near bodies of water. Some patchy fog will be in place through sunrise and visibility may be variable over short distances due to these fog patches. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s, although some of the typical colder spots may fall into the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tomorrow...Warmth and humidity increases as the retreating sfc anticyclone pumps northward higher dewpts and temps. H850 temps increase to +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal based on the 12Z GEFS. The actual values will be around +15C to +16C. The NAM/GFS are indicating a weak prefrontal sfc trough or lake breeze disturbance may trigger a few showers/isold thunderstorms over west/central NY. A few of these showers may reach the western periphery of the forecast area /western Adirondacks...west- central Mohawk Valley...and the northern Catskills/. We placed a slight chance in for the late pm. Overall, warm/hot conditions will prevail with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs will be in the lower to mid 80s in the valleys, and 70s to around 80F over the hills and mtns. It will become breezier during the afternoon. Sunday night...A mild and muggy night, as we countdown the beginning of Fall/Autumn, as it begins at 350 am EDT. It will feel like summer, as low temps will be in the mid/upper 60s in the valleys, and upper 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. A few prefrontal showers may graze the western Adirondacks before sunrise. Monday...A cold front and its associated upper trough approach the forecast area with the best chance for widespread showers in over a week. The timing of the front and short-wave varies a bit on the guidance, but there is a decent consensus to go with likely and high chc PoPs in the afternoon. PWATs surge above normal, which is typical with frontal passages. Some splashes of rain may occur with any isolated convection that pops up due to frontal convergence, negative Showalter values and weak instability in general. The low-level lapse rates due steepen so will have to watch for some gusty winds from any thunderstorms, but the severe threat looks very low at this time. Tall updrafts will be tough to achieve with weak instability despite favorable dynamics. A slight chance of thunder was placed over the entire area. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal again with upper 70s to mid 80s in the valley areas, and upper 60s to upper 70s over the mtns. Monday night into Tuesday...Any isolated thunderstorms should diminish early Monday night. The cyclonic vorticity advection with the upper trough will keep isolated to scattered showers going most of the night. The cold pool and upper low will focus some instability showers over the higher terrain over the northern half of the forecast area on Tuesday, and it will be much cooler. Lows Mon night will drop back into the upper 40s to 50s with highs Tue in the upper 50s to upper 60s with a few 70s sprinkled in the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The period begins as an upper low pulls away from the region. This will lead to a period of dry and near seasonable weather on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night will be on the cooler side, in the lower 40s to lower 50s. Afternoon highs on Wednesday should reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. An upper level trough and surface cold front approach the region Wednesday night into the day on Thursday. Showers will be possible as the cold front passes through the region on Thursday but there are some timing differences between global models. The GFS is the quicker solution and also brings the upper trough further south into New York which could add additional shower chances. Whereas the ECMWF is slower with the frontal passage and keeps most of the upper energy north of the forecast area. Both of these solutions would lead to the best chances for showers across the northern half of the forecast area. So for now, have stayed with a blended approach and chance pops until models come into better agreement. The front should exit the region by Thursday night, as high pressure builds in from the west. This will result in a dry start to the weekend with slightly above normal temperatures. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with overnight lows generally in the lower 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Nearly clear skies, light winds and narrowing dewpoint depressions, the potential for IFR/LIFR conditions with respect to fog. KGFL-KPSF are already experiencing those conditions and will likely remain that way the remainder of the nighttime period. Otherwise, VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast cycle. Winds will remain light and variable through the overnight period then begin increasing from the southwest between 5 and 15 kts towards 18Z/Sun. May need to address LLWS with future updates leading into Sunday night. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will be near the Mid Atlantic Region tonight with mostly clear and cool conditions. The surface high will move eastward away from the coast with above normal temperatures. A cold front and an upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday. The RH values will rise to 80 to 100 percent tonight with dew formation and patchy fog. The minimum RH values tomorrow afternoon will be in the 45 to 65 percent range, and then rise to 85 to 100 percent Monday morning. The winds will become light to calm tonight. They will become southerly at 5 to 15 mph Sunday into Sunday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Problems are not foreseen on the Albany HSA waterways the next 7 days. Much of the HSA has been very dry the past few weeks. A cold front and upper level disturbance will bring a tenth to a third of an inch to portions of the HSA Monday into Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorm may yield locally higher amounts. Overall, rivers and streams may rise a few inches, but then quickly recede Tuesday into the mid week as dry weather returns. Flows continue at normal to below normal levels for late September. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND/Wasula NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...JLV AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...Wasula