Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 301735
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1235 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure and cold front will push across the
region into tonight with periods of light rain and snow.
Precipitation will taper off across most areas after midnight
except for western areas as lake-effect snow showers will
develop. Colder weather is expected on Tuesday with lake-effect
snow showers gradually diminishing. An arctic air mass arrives
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 1230 PM EST, the main changes with this update
were to tighten up the temperature gradient from north to south
as northern areas are running lower than predicted with southern
areas running as expected. A few fragments of precipitation have
reached areas north and west of Albany producing some light
snowfall, but so far little or no accumulation. Activity should
become better organized this afternoon and evening, slowly
advancing southeastward with time. Still expecting amounts to
range from little to none to an inch or two for most areas.

Previous Discussion:
As of 1030 AM EST, a frontal boundary is positioned
from southwest to northeast just to the south of Albany and is
now nearly stationary. A weak area of low pressure near
western/central Pennsylvania will track northeastward along this
front this afternoon and evening. Lift within the surface low
and low- level convergence along the front will aid in some
light precipitation this afternoon and evening which is already
being seen on radar across western/central New York. This
activity will increase in coverage across areas mainly north and
west of Albany into the early afternoon before slowly shifting
south and eastward into tonight.

Overall trends support light liquid equivalent precipitation
with this system. Many obs across western New York are only
reporting visibilities in snow of 1-3SM. As a result, we do
expect accumulations to occur slowly. The January sun angle
should limit much in the way of accumulations on paved surfaces
during the day, especially in the valleys and areas where
temperatures will be near or above freezing. In addition, low-
level southwesterly flow should lead to some downsloping issues,
especially within the immediate Capital District, and this
should limit accumulations there. Rain could also mix in at
times this afternoon from the Capital District and areas
farther south and east.

Updates this morning were to tweak QPF/snow amounts per the
latest guidance and this trended amounts down slightly for some
areas. Will have to monitor if any bands of more moderate snow
develop and localized higher amounts could occur; however,
forcing is not well aligned within the DGZ per forecast
soundings. Many areas will pick up less than an inch of snow
with upslope favored areas east of the Hudson River and the
Adirondacks/western Mohawk and Schoharie valleys picking up 1-2
inches. Some additional light accumulations will occur across
the Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley tonight due to lake-
effect snow showers.

In terms of cloud cover, it will be mostly cloudy/cloudy for the
Capital District and points north and west with a few breaks of
sun possible for areas farther south and east into this
afternoon before turning cloudy later today.

Widely varying temps are expected today due in part to clouds,
the positioning of the front and timing of precipitation. Highs
in the 20s to lower 30s are expected for most areas north and
west of Albany. Closer to the front from the Schoharie Valley
into the Capital District and southern Vermont, highs between 32
and 38 degrees are expected. Farther south and east, highs in
the upper 30s to even upper 40s are expected with the highest
readings across Dutchess County.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Snow showers or a period of light snow should be ongoing across
portions of the eastern Mohawk Valley, eastern Catskills
extending northeast into the Capital Region, Berkshires and
southern VT. This area of snow showers or light snow should
eventually expand south and east later this evening, with some
rain showers possibly changing to snow before ending as far
south and east as the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Total
snowfall accumulations of a coating to 2 inches could occur
across portions of the Taconics, Berkshires, southern Greens,
extending into the Capital Region and eastern Catskills. Snow
should taper from from NW to SE toward daybreak, although a lake
effect snowband may develop toward daybreak and impact portions
of southern Herkimer County. Lows tonight in the single digits
and teens across northern areas, and lower/mid 20s farther south
and east.

Lake effect snow may continue through early afternoon across the
far western Mohawk Valley/Schoharie Valley and eastern
Catskills, before shifting south and contracting back to the
west in the afternoon. Elsewhere, a mix of sun and clouds is
expected, with mid level clouds thickening once again later in
the day with the approach of another upper level disturbance.
Highs mainly in the 20s and 30s, except only teens across the
southwest Adirondacks.

Some low level ridging builds into the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A period of mostly cloudy skies, and perhaps some
spotty snow showers/flurries may occur early Tuesday night with
aforementioned passing upper level disturbance; otherwise some
clearing is expected later at night with at least some sunshine
expected Wednesday. However, lake effect snow may develop later
in the day into Wednesday night across far northern Herkimer
County and northwest Hamilton County, where a couple of inches
will be possible. Highs Wednesday mainly in the 20s to lower
30s, except teens across the southern Adirondacks, with lows
Wednesday night in the single digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills expected Friday
into Saturday...

The main concern for significant/impactful weather in the long
term will be a major (short-lived) cold outbreak that will
feature bitterly cold temperatures and gusty winds resulting in
dangerously low wind chills. Deterministic/ensemble guidance all
indicating an Arctic cold front will sweep southeast across the
region Thursday night into Friday morning. Snow showers may
accompany the Arctic front, however the main impacts will be
from the dangerous cold that will ensue in wake of the front.
GEFS/NAEFS indicating impressive 850/925 mb temperature
anomalies of -2 to -3 STDEV developing Friday into Friday night.
Gusty northwest winds are also expected to develop and persist,
which result in wind chills in the -20s to
-40s Friday night into Saturday morning. Should these values be
realized, Wind Chill Warnings would be needed. Will continue to
mention threat in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

It will remain cold Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but
the air mass will already begin to modify as the core of the
cold shifts northeast into northern New England and the Canadian
Maritimes as a 1040+ mb area of high pressure also shifts east
of our region. By Sunday, a SW flow aloft should return
resulting in much milder temperatures with highs near to
slightly above normal. Chances for snow showers also return
associated with warm advection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18z/Tue...Mainly BKN to OVC skies across the region at
this time with MVFR cigs at ALB and GFL and VFR cigs at POU and
PSF. Will likely see this trend continue for the next couple
hours, but PSF should see MVFR cigs fill back in by 20z. Also,
an area of low pressure will bring scattered light snow showers
to the region later this afternoon into tonight. Snow showers
will overspread the region from northwest to southeast, and will
be accompanied by MVFR cigs and IFR visibilities in snow
showers. Some rain may mix in at POU, especially this evening.
Total snow accumulation looks to generally be less than an inch
at GFL/PSF and less than a half inch at ALB/POU.

Snow showers end from northwest to southeast between 4-8z. Vsbys
and cigs both return to VFR once snow showers end tonight. VFR
conditions continue through the end of the TAF period, except at
PSF where a period of MVFR cigs is expected from mid-morning
into the afternoon due to northwesterly upslope flow.

Winds will be light and variable this afternoon and evening, but
pick up to around 5 kt from the northwest tonight after 00z.
Winds increase to 5-10 kt from the north/northwest after 6-8z,
which continues through mid morning. Then, winds turn more
west/northwesterly at around 10 kt behind a cold frontal passage
tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...KL/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Main

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion