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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 240231 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 931 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A seasonably to unseasonably cold air mass will remain in place through much of next week with the coldest anomalies occurring through this weekend. Blustery conditions will continue through the rest of tonight into Sunday. The combination of cold temperatures and winds will result in even colder wind chill values. Dry and tranquil weather conditions will prevail through Monday. We continue to closely monitor a storm system that has the potential to bring more wintry weather to the region by Tuesday of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... ***Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect for Northern Herkimer, Hamilton, and Northern Warren Counties from 11 PM tonight through 10 AM Sunday*** As of 930 PM EST, coldest temperatures across the state are currently in the southern Dacks where winds have decreased and skies have cleared. Old Forge Mesonet hit 0F degrees and just northwest in Croghan, -9F degrees. So have made minor tweaks to the hourly temps to reflect recent obs but otherwise, the near term forecast remains on track. Prev Disc... As of 6PM EST, skies have mostly cleared across the area except for downwind of lake Ontario. This would normally allow for temps to plummet but the ongoing gusty winds will prevent them from doing so. Even so, temps are on track to fall below zero in the Dacks and into the single digits and teens elsewhere. The gusty winds will continue through the overnight but should lessen slightly. Have noticed haze being reported at KPSF but assuming this is blowing snow with gusts up to 30 mph and clear skies. Therefore, have made some minor adjustments to the sky cover and hourly temps but overall, weather will remain quite but awfully chilly overnight. Prev Disc... Overview... A high-latitude atmospheric (-PNA/-AO/-NAO) blocking pattern and a La Nina continue to be the primary weather/climate variables driving our weather pattern. As we fast forward in time towards the tail end of January into the early parts of February, there are signals suggesting that the -PNA teleconnection will become the more dominant player in our weather pattern. Additionally, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is forecast to be in a phase 6/7 over the next 15 days, will increasingly (in time over the next couple of weeks) become a key variable in the weather pattern here across the CONUS. Meanwhile, the NAO which is currently in a negative phase will soon become less of a factor in the weather pattern. What this means locally is that the cold that`s currently in place via the effects of upper troughing will eventually wane giving way to a milder/warmer and potentially wetter/stormier than normal pattern amid western U.S. troughing and downstream eastern U.S. ridging. La Nina will still be in play, but will be more noticeable to our west. Getting back to the near term forecast... The main weather story through tonight will center around 1) the blustery weather conditions and 2) the arrival of a colder than normal airmass. A strong 1025-1030 mb high pressure system to our west over the central United States will continue to build into the forecast area throughout the day today. Subsidence from this weather feature has allowed for clouds to break/clear over the area (particularly over the valleys) with some clouds still hanging over the mountains. The clearing skies is a welcome sight considering how cloudy it`s been as of late. Additionally, the clearing has resulted in effective mixing with mixing layer heights near 900 mb or 3,000 feet AGL translating to gusty northwest winds at the surface on the order of 25 to 35 kts this afternoon. These gusty winds/blustery conditions will persist through the rest of this afternoon into tonight. In addition to the gusty winds, the western flank of broad cyclonic flow aloft and the aforementioned surface high building in from the west, will result in adequate cold and dry air advection, and ultimately usher temperatures that are colder than the standards of late January. As of 1500 UTC, 24-hour temperature departures across the area were on the order of -15 to -20F. High temperatures are expected to only top the 20s across the Hudson Valley (near 30F southern Hudson valley), teens most other places, and single digits SW Adirondacks. A high temperature at Albany International Airport of 22F is forecast today which would be about 9F below late January standards. For tonight, low temperatures aided by clear to mostly clear skies are expected to drop into the teens across the mid- Hudson Valley, single digits most other places, and below zero over the SW Adirondacks. Factor in the winds which are expected to remain gusty tonight 20-30 kts and wind chill values or the apparent, real- feel temperatures will be even colder. Wind chill values tonight are expected to run -5F to -15F most places (-20F to -25F over the SW Adirondacks). Because of this, a Wind Chill Advisory has been hoisted for the counties highlighted above. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... Northwest winds will remain gusty 20 to about 30 kts during the day on Sunday before subsiding in the evening. Weather will remain dry and tranquil Sunday and Monday as the aforementioned surface high pressure system further builds into the area and upper level ridging (via the -PNA western CONUS trough) develops over the region. In addition, there will be plenty of sun on both Sunday and Monday. However, despite the abundant availability of sun, the Arctic high will still be overhead. Therefore, temperatures will still be rather cold running below normal values. Similar to today, high temperatures on Sunday will be on the order of about 10F colder than normal as high temperatures are only expected to top out into the 20s across the Hudson Valley (near 30F southern zones), teens most other places, and single digits SW Adirondacks. Overnight lows Sunday night into Monday will be in the teens from Albany and points south, single digits north of Albany, and slightly below zero over the SW Adirondacks. On Monday, temperatures moderate some with daytime high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the Hudson Valley (upper teens to mid 20s high elevations). Clouds are expected to increase in coverage during the second half of Monday (esp. south of Albany) ahead of a storm system that could bring some wintry precipitation to at least a portion of the area on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... We start the long term period as a weakening low pressure system, in the southern stream flow, tracks towards the mid-Atlantic region. Model guidance has come into good agreement with a weakening trend and keeping the main low center to our south. Upper level flow does become zonal as we move through the day Tuesday, resulting in a potential snowfall. Best chances for minor accumulations of snow look be Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, mainly south and west of Albany. Upper level energy lingers in the zonal flow through the day Wednesday, which may also allow for lingering snow showers. But most areas should be dry with seasonable temperatures. Another piece of upper energy in the southern stream flow tracks towards the Carolinas Wednesday night into Thursday and is the kicker to push the weak trough east into the Atlantic Ocean. This system does intensity but should be well offshore before it does so. High pressure and ridging build back into the forecast area for the end of the work week with temperatures warming back towards normal for the weekend. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds into the region overnight. Gusty northwest winds will continue through the overnight with gusts to 25 kt remaining possible through the night and into Sunday afternoon. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrological issues are expected during the weekend and upcoming week. A few periods of light snow and lake effect snow are possible which will have little impact on the rivers. Cold temperatures will persist through the middle of next week. Cold air will support river and lake ice development, especially this weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for NYZ032-033-042. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evbuoma NEAR TERM...Evbuoma/JLV SHORT TERM...Evbuoma LONG TERM...JLV AVIATION...Thompson HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma