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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
713 FXUS61 KALY 061758 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 158 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... After a clear and cool start to the day, clouds will increase this afternoon as the next storm system starts to approach. There will be a chance for some passing showers and even a thunderstorm tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Behind this front, cooler air will move into the region during the upcoming week, although it will continue to remain dry for most of the time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Widespread sun and light winds through the afternoon. High pressure will slowly drift eastward through the day, with the shortwave ridge axis shifting eastward as well. High pressure will eventually pass off the coast of New England by later this afternoon. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s in valley areas, with low to mid 60s across the high terrain. This will make for yet another mild and comfortable early October day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front will be approaching the area for tonight. This system will have more moisture and slightly stronger dynamics compared to the last few systems to impact the region. CAMs suggest a line of showers will be moving west to east across the entire for tonight, beginning as early as 8 pm across northwestern areas. There may be some elevated instability as well, so can`t rule out a rumble of thunder, but the nocturnal timing of the boundary should prevent any surface-based instability and no strong winds are expected to be pulled down to the surface with this activity for tonight. Most spots should see a quick tenth to third of an inch of rainfall, with locally up to a half inch. With the recent dry weather, this rainfall is much needed and no hydro issues are expected. Skies should be fairly cloudy through the entire night, although some clearing may start to occur towards daybreak Monday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the coolest temps in northwestern areas. A few showers along the front may linger into the start of the day on Monday for eastern areas, but most of the frontal precip should be done. Our area will be behind the departing shortwave for Monday, but still ahead of the main upper level low over Ontario and the upper Great Lakes. As a result, it will be slightly cooler, but still fairly mild, with daytime temps well into the 60s. A few additional light showers are possible Monday afternoon for northwestern areas due to the approaching cyclonic flow and moisture off the Great Lakes, but most areas will be staying dry with a partly sunny sky. Cooler air will start arriving for Monday night with a partly cloudy sky. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most, although some mid 30s are possible in the Adirondacks. Still looks just mild enough to avoid frost in any areas with the growing season still ongoing, but it may be close. Large upper level low will be passing by to the north for Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will make for cool temps and some passing clouds, but limited moisture should keep it fairly dry. A spotty light shower is possible for far northern and western areas thanks to lake effect or upslope, but most areas will be staying dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temps on Tuesday will only reach the 50s for most areas (some low to mid 60s in the immediate Hudson Valley). Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s and some frost will be possible within the high terrain and outlying areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages: - Rain chances for locations west and north of Albany Wednesday (15- 45%) - Crisp autumn mornings in store through the end of the work week - Dry and breezy conditions Wednesday night into the end of next week Discussion: Latest forecast ensemble model guidance is in remarkably good agreement for upper level troughing to continue into Wednesday. Unsettled weather conditions across the western Adirondacks into the Lake George-Saratoga and Mohawk Valley region in the form of scattered rain showers has 15 to 45 percent chances of occurring Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, locations are favored to remain dry, but breezy as the upper level trough moves east and surface winds can reach between 15 and 25 mph Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging is currently favored by ensemble forecast models to build back into the Northeast Wednesday night into Thursday and continue through Saturday. National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 latest probabilistic data suggests Thursday morning has chances (75%) of temperatures reaching below 32 degrees across higher terrain of the western Adirondacks and for western New England. Elsewhere, probabilities are greater than 75 percent for lows to reach less than 40 degrees. Crisp autumn mornings could be observed through at least Friday this week with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. For high temperatures, low 50s to low 60s could be observed Wednesday through Friday as probabilities are greater than 75 percent for high temperatures to reach less than 65 degrees through the end of the work week. A warmer day could be in store for Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s for valleys. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with clear skies across eastern New York and western New England ahead of an approaching frontal system and associated upper-level disturbance. This system will near through this evening before tracking across the region throughout the overnight period into tomorrow morning, forcing the passage of a cold front. Ahead of this front, clouds will increase and ceilings will subsequently develop shortly after sunset. Ceiling heights will then gradually drop as the impending front nears and a northeast to southwest-extending line of showers moves into the region. KGFL and KALB will be the first to feel the effects of the front with ceilings dropping into MVFR thresholds (between 2.5-3.0 kft) and light showers occurring between 05-09z. Shortly following, KPOU and KPSF will see ceilings drop to MVFR and IFR (KPSF) thresholds (1-2.5 kft) between 08-12z in tandem with light showers. KPSF could have some moderate showers between 10-12z, so alluded to this within a PROB30 group during this time. Showers should generally be light enough to keep visibility within MVFR-VFR thresholds, but moderate showers at KPSF could drop visibility to the IFR level. It is possible that embedded, heavier showers occur elsewhere, which could drop visibility to IFR levels as well but confidence is not as high in this element of the forecast. Will make amendments where necessary with future updates. Upon the conclusion of showers tomorrow morning, ceilings should remain within the 1.5-2.5 kft range for a few hours before lifting to VFR levels. Visibility may be slow to come up with misty conditions persisting but complete VFR conditions should be returned by mid-morning. Winds throughout the period will begin out of the southeast at speeds of 5-10 kt throughout the remainder of the afternoon. The southeast direction will be maintained into the first portion of the overnight with sustained speeds decreasing to 2-4 kt before the front pushes through and backs winds to the northwest by tomorrow morning. Sustained wind speeds will increase through the morning and into the early part of the afternoon tomorrow with 6-12 kt likely paired with gusts up to 20 kt possible especially at KALB and KPSF. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Webb AVIATION...Gant