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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 141144 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 644 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... After another very cold morning, afternoon temperatures will be a little milder than yesterday, but still below normal, with a mostly cloudy sky. Another Arctic cold front will pass through the region on Friday, with breezy conditions and some snow showers for northern areas. Behind this front, another round of very cold temperatures will be in place for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 644 AM EST...1033 hpa high pressure area is located east of the region over eastern and northern New England and continues to slide eastward. Meanwhile, IR satellite imagery shows southwest flow in the mid to upper levels is bringing in plenty of moisture, with high clouds already in place across the entire region thanks to some strong jet dynamics in place. This moisture aloft is streaming ahead of a cold front located over the Great Lakes, with a surface warm front lifting across eastern Ontario, St. Lawrence Valley and the North Country. Despite the clouds, it`s another very cold morning, with temperatures starting out in the teens. Although it will remain cloudy for most of the day due to the extensive high clouds heading into the area, a southerly breeze will pick by mid morning. This will allow temperatures to warm up into the 30s across the whole area by afternoon (upper 20s for the highest terrain). With limited moisture in the low levels and not much forcing in place, not expecting any precipitation for today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Initial cold front approaching the area will be falling apart as it reaches the Northeast for tonight. Some lake effect activity looks to develop with the southwest flow at low to mid levels, but this trajectory will keep any of the activity away from our area for tonight, with snow showers heading towards the St. Lawrence Valley. As a result, it should be dry for tonight, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures will be in the mid 20s for lows. While milder than the past few nights, these are still a little below normal for mid November. On Friday, a stronger Arctic cold front will be dropping towards the area from southern Canada. This northern stream system won`t have a lot of moisture associated with it, but will be accompanied by a very strong thickness gradient. With the decent forcing, a few snow showers look to accompany its passage, mainly for areas north and west of the Capital Region during the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. Any snow showers look very brief and amounts will be an inch or less and mainly limited to just the western Adirondacks. A decent pressure gradient should allow for some gusty winds to accompany this boundary, especially immediately behind the front, with some gusts to 25 mph. Temps should spike into the mid 30s to mid 40s ahead of the front for Friday, but colder temps will quickly return behind the front for Friday night with lows ranging from near zero in the Adirondacks to around 20 in the mid Hudson Valley. Strong high pressure will move across the area for Saturday into Saturday night. This will allow for clear skies and decreasing winds. Despite the sun, it will be very cold on Saturday thanks to 850 hpa of -10 to -14 C. Highs only will reach the 20s to low 30s and we could challenge a few record low max temps once again. Saturday night will be another frigid night with lows in the single digits and teens again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... We begin the long term with an well anchored surface high pressure across New England. This should allow for a tranquil end of the weekend under ample sunshine. Temperatures, while are expected to be above freezing, should still average below normal with mainly 30s expected. The complex aspect of this forecast starts Sunday night. Global model consensus all suggest a coastal storm will evolve off the Carolina coastline and begins its slow track up the coastline. However, its impact for the local area remain in question as the GFS/GGEM/ICON global models are the most aggressive with clouds and probabilities of precipitation with the ECMWF the furthest east with the coastal wave. We will increase cloud coverage and bring about low chance probabilities from southeast to northwest. This trend will continue into Monday as well. Thermal profiles suggest a wintry mixture is possible Sunday night through Monday with rain/sleet/snow. Then the confidence continues to lower Monday Night through Tuesday as an increasing southwest flow regime aloft with approaching upstream long wave trough axis will keep clouds and low chance PoPs in the forecast with slight moderation in the temperatures. Then Wednesday is perhaps the lowest confidence forecast as the ECMWF takes upstream strong pv-anomaly around the base of the trough and develops another coastal storm with higher impacts for the region with the GGEM/GFS/ICON global models much less of a signal and less amplified. Ensemble approach favors cyclonic vorticity across the region with clouds and low chance PoPs at this time. Thermal profiles, well, we will place a rain/snow mixture at this time with better potential of mixing across the higher terrain and mainly rain for valley locations. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will likely prevail across all TAF sites through the forecast period with high pressure in place. Mainly a broken mid-level cloud deck is expected with some hints of a stratus deck overnight, however, left this as a scattered deck at this time. Winds will be light and variable at 5 kts or less early, then winds will become southerly increasing to 5 to 12 kts. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...SLEET. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN...SLEET. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SLEET. && .FIRE WEATHER... Cold weather is expected today and tonight. A few passing snow showers are expected across northern areas on Friday with an Arctic cold front, along with gusty northwesterly winds. Dry weather is expected over the weekend with more cold temperatures. Next widespread precipitation will be at some point next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydro issues are anticipated through early next week. Very cold temperatures are expected again today and tonight. Although temperatures will moderate slightly on Friday, a passing Arctic cold front will return another round of cold temperatures for the weekend. Little precipitation is expected with this boundary and what little does occur will be only across northern areas and will be in the form of snow showers. Next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be at some point during next week. With the cold temperatures in place, some ice will form on shallow bodies of water (mainly non-moving ponds and small lakes). Otherwise, river and streams levels will generally hold steady into early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including latest observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .EQUIPMENT... The KENX radar will be down this week for the refurbishment of the transmitter. Please see our webpage and the public information statement for more details. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis EQUIPMENT...WFO ALY