Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KALY 300743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
343 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure area will keep our weather unsettled
through most of this upcoming week. This will keep occasional
cloud coverage along with the threat for showers in the
forecast. Some of the higher terrain may experience a little
snow from time to time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM EDT...Per satellite imagery, seems the stratus deck
is tracking eastward and being replaced by a lower stratus deck
with some patchy fog. The earlier showers driven in part by the
mid level jet max across PA has moved southeast of the region,
hence the decrease in shower coverage. However, as seen
upstream, a weak band of showers across the central Great Lakes
is approaching. H2O vapor imagery depicts a couple of short
waves over Wisconsin and southern-lower Michigan that will
approach this afternoon around the upper low over southern
Canada. This will likely ignite additional showers as the cold
pool aloft, around -25C @ H500, along with these short waves to
result in band(s) of showers. HRRR reflectivity suggests a
rather robust line of showers approaching after 18Z so we will
increase PoPs from west to east through the afternoon hours.
High temperatures today likely climbing 5-10 degrees from this
mornings low temperatures as thermal column shows a slow cooling
process with H850 temperatures dipping below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As the upper low and associated short waves track off the New
England coastline, residual moist cyclonic flow and continued
height falls to keep clouds and the threat for additional
showers. However, these showers will likely decrease in coverage
as overall synoptic lift diminishes. Now within the colder air
there will be some light snow or light snow showers overnight
that could be observed for valley locations. Any accumulations
are expected to remain across the higher terrain. Overnight lows
forecast to dip back into the 30s with some upper 20s across the
highest of the terrain.

Tuesday, there are subtle suggestions that the moisture field
may become a little more diffuse as weak subsidence moves across
the region. Now, just how much impact this will have and bring
about sunshine is a low confidence forecast. MOS suggests BK-OV
so we will keep more clouds in the forecast at this time. It is
possible binovc`s may occur for the Hudson River Valley later in
the day with a light northeast wind. Otherwise, high
temperatures should remain on the cool side with mainly 40s
expected.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a short wave and associated
surface low are expected to track eastward along or south of
I70. Meanwhile. upper low off the New England coastline is
expected to reform a little further west. These features will
likely keep occasional cloud coverage with most of the moisture
into the terrain and we will keep the weather dry due to lack of
focus to enhance lift. As H850 temperatures hold below the
freezing mark, Tuesday night lows will dip into upper 20s and
lower 30s and highs Wednesday rebound back into the 40s,
especially where breaks of sunshine occur.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Closed off upper level low will continue to be situated just east of
the region, spinning off the coast of New England for Wednesday
night through Thursday night.  Although most of the area should be
dry, can`t rule out a few light rain showers still impacting western
New England. Otherwise, it will continue to be fairly cloudy across
the region thanks to the cyclonic flow in place with somewhat cool
temps (40s during the day and 30s at night for most).

By Friday, the upper level low will start shifting far enough east
to allow some ridging to build across the region.  This will allow
for more sunshine across the region, along with milder temperatures.
Valley areas should reach into the mid 50s during the day on Friday
with a partly sunny sky.

The weekend should start off dry with mild temperatures, but a
northern stream frontal boundary should approach at some point Sat
night into Sunday.  This should allow for more clouds for the second
half of the weekend, with the low chance for some rain showers.
Otherwise, temps will continue to reach into the mid 50s for valley
areas during the day, with overnight lows in the mid to upper
30s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lots of lingering low level moisture is keeping MVFR stratus
clouds in place for all sites. Based on upstream satellite
imagery, there could be some breaks late in the overnight. These
breaks could then allow for some radiational fog to form due to
the low t/td spread, so will include a TEMPO for this
possibility with visibility lowering to IFR levels. Otherwise,
flying conditions should remain MVFR with cigs around 1-3 kft.
No more showers are expected for the rest of the overnight
hours.

The day on Monday starts dry, but some showers will move back in
for the afternoon hours. There could be a period of heavier
showers for later in the afternoon or the early evening and will
include a PROB30 for the chance for IFR visibility with these
showers. Otherwise, it will remain MVFR for cigs all day, with
MVFR visibility expected in the showers.

Can`t rule out a few lingering stray showers for Monday night,
otherwise, the steady precip looks done. However, plenty of
lingering low level moisture will keep MVFR cigs in place for
all on Monday night with stratus clouds around 2-3 kft expected.

Winds will be light through the TAF period. Northeast winds may
briefly become southeasterly during the day Monday, before
returning to the north to northeast for late Monday into Monday
night. Speeds generally will be under 10 kts (mostly 5 kts or
less).

Outlook...

Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A lingering upper level low pressure system will result in
showers continuing today into tonight, with some light snow
over the higher terrain. Ample clouds remain, but with drier
conditions on Tuesday. Temperatures will approach near seasonal
normals.

RH levels above 50 percent through Tuesday with light winds at
less than 12 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An upper closed low will bring periods of showers to the region
through Tuesday, with some snow showers in higher terrain
Monday night. Rainfall amounts through Tuesday are expected to
be a third to two thirds of an inch in the southern Adirondacks
and Lake George Saratoga Region, where some of the precipitation
will be in the form of snow showers. The rest of the region is
expected to see a tenth up to a third of an inch of rain.

The combination of rain and snowmelt will lead to river rises,
although there remains uncertainty with respect to the magnitude
of both factors. The cool temperatures may limit snowmelt
somewhat. At this time, the Schroon at Riverbank and the West
Canada at Hinckley will continue to rise and possibly reach or
just fall short of minor flood stage around Tuesday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS

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NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion