Scan Me With Your Phone's Bar Code Reader App
Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 300743 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 343 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure area will keep our weather unsettled through most of this upcoming week. This will keep occasional cloud coverage along with the threat for showers in the forecast. Some of the higher terrain may experience a little snow from time to time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 330 AM EDT...Per satellite imagery, seems the stratus deck is tracking eastward and being replaced by a lower stratus deck with some patchy fog. The earlier showers driven in part by the mid level jet max across PA has moved southeast of the region, hence the decrease in shower coverage. However, as seen upstream, a weak band of showers across the central Great Lakes is approaching. H2O vapor imagery depicts a couple of short waves over Wisconsin and southern-lower Michigan that will approach this afternoon around the upper low over southern Canada. This will likely ignite additional showers as the cold pool aloft, around -25C @ H500, along with these short waves to result in band(s) of showers. HRRR reflectivity suggests a rather robust line of showers approaching after 18Z so we will increase PoPs from west to east through the afternoon hours. High temperatures today likely climbing 5-10 degrees from this mornings low temperatures as thermal column shows a slow cooling process with H850 temperatures dipping below zero. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As the upper low and associated short waves track off the New England coastline, residual moist cyclonic flow and continued height falls to keep clouds and the threat for additional showers. However, these showers will likely decrease in coverage as overall synoptic lift diminishes. Now within the colder air there will be some light snow or light snow showers overnight that could be observed for valley locations. Any accumulations are expected to remain across the higher terrain. Overnight lows forecast to dip back into the 30s with some upper 20s across the highest of the terrain. Tuesday, there are subtle suggestions that the moisture field may become a little more diffuse as weak subsidence moves across the region. Now, just how much impact this will have and bring about sunshine is a low confidence forecast. MOS suggests BK-OV so we will keep more clouds in the forecast at this time. It is possible binovc`s may occur for the Hudson River Valley later in the day with a light northeast wind. Otherwise, high temperatures should remain on the cool side with mainly 40s expected. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a short wave and associated surface low are expected to track eastward along or south of I70. Meanwhile. upper low off the New England coastline is expected to reform a little further west. These features will likely keep occasional cloud coverage with most of the moisture into the terrain and we will keep the weather dry due to lack of focus to enhance lift. As H850 temperatures hold below the freezing mark, Tuesday night lows will dip into upper 20s and lower 30s and highs Wednesday rebound back into the 40s, especially where breaks of sunshine occur. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Closed off upper level low will continue to be situated just east of the region, spinning off the coast of New England for Wednesday night through Thursday night. Although most of the area should be dry, can`t rule out a few light rain showers still impacting western New England. Otherwise, it will continue to be fairly cloudy across the region thanks to the cyclonic flow in place with somewhat cool temps (40s during the day and 30s at night for most). By Friday, the upper level low will start shifting far enough east to allow some ridging to build across the region. This will allow for more sunshine across the region, along with milder temperatures. Valley areas should reach into the mid 50s during the day on Friday with a partly sunny sky. The weekend should start off dry with mild temperatures, but a northern stream frontal boundary should approach at some point Sat night into Sunday. This should allow for more clouds for the second half of the weekend, with the low chance for some rain showers. Otherwise, temps will continue to reach into the mid 50s for valley areas during the day, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lots of lingering low level moisture is keeping MVFR stratus clouds in place for all sites. Based on upstream satellite imagery, there could be some breaks late in the overnight. These breaks could then allow for some radiational fog to form due to the low t/td spread, so will include a TEMPO for this possibility with visibility lowering to IFR levels. Otherwise, flying conditions should remain MVFR with cigs around 1-3 kft. No more showers are expected for the rest of the overnight hours. The day on Monday starts dry, but some showers will move back in for the afternoon hours. There could be a period of heavier showers for later in the afternoon or the early evening and will include a PROB30 for the chance for IFR visibility with these showers. Otherwise, it will remain MVFR for cigs all day, with MVFR visibility expected in the showers. Can`t rule out a few lingering stray showers for Monday night, otherwise, the steady precip looks done. However, plenty of lingering low level moisture will keep MVFR cigs in place for all on Monday night with stratus clouds around 2-3 kft expected. Winds will be light through the TAF period. Northeast winds may briefly become southeasterly during the day Monday, before returning to the north to northeast for late Monday into Monday night. Speeds generally will be under 10 kts (mostly 5 kts or less). Outlook... Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A lingering upper level low pressure system will result in showers continuing today into tonight, with some light snow over the higher terrain. Ample clouds remain, but with drier conditions on Tuesday. Temperatures will approach near seasonal normals. RH levels above 50 percent through Tuesday with light winds at less than 12 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... An upper closed low will bring periods of showers to the region through Tuesday, with some snow showers in higher terrain Monday night. Rainfall amounts through Tuesday are expected to be a third to two thirds of an inch in the southern Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region, where some of the precipitation will be in the form of snow showers. The rest of the region is expected to see a tenth up to a third of an inch of rain. The combination of rain and snowmelt will lead to river rises, although there remains uncertainty with respect to the magnitude of both factors. The cool temperatures may limit snowmelt somewhat. At this time, the Schroon at Riverbank and the West Canada at Hinckley will continue to rise and possibly reach or just fall short of minor flood stage around Tuesday. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BGM NEAR TERM...BGM SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...BGM/NAS HYDROLOGY...BGM/NAS www.weather.gov/albany