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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
257 FXUS61 KALY 271748 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 148 PM EDT Sun Apr 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather returns tonight as high pressure builds in across the region. A beautiful, Spring day is on tap for Monday before a cold front brings the chance for showers and thunderstorms, some possibly becoming severe, late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Dry weather then returns for the middle of the week before additional showers are anticipated towards the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... .UPDATE...As of 145 PM EDT...The forecast remains in good shape with this update. Visible satellite shows immediate clearing over central and western New York behind the rear flank of the low that now sits just off the southeast coast of Maine. Wrap- around, upslope showers continue in portions of the Southern Adirondacks, eastern Mohawk Valley, Helderbergs, northeast Catskills, and southern Greens, but these should taper off within the next few hours as the low swiftly pushes farther north and eastward. Rapid clearing is then expected as high pressure continues to encroach upon the region from the west and, paired with the associated upper ridge, induces large scale subsidence across eastern New York and western New England. See the previous discussion below for additional details. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Scattered rain showers and higher elevation mix of rain and snow showers continue today as the surface low pressure system continues to move overhead in New York. Light snowfall accumulations in the highest terrain of the southern Greens and western Adirondacks can be observed today as temperatures should remain below freezing through the morning. Elsewhere, light precipitation amounts up to 0.15 inches is in the forecast through early this evening. The low pressure system heads eastward across the Northeast this afternoon and evening which contributes to breezy conditions. Winds could gust between 25 and 35 mph this afternoon. Highs today remain comfortable ranging in the 40s and 50s. Once the low pressure heads east, surface high pressure builds in for tonight with mostly clear skies and chilly temperatures once again. Lows range in the 30s and 40s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: - Severe thunderstorms remain possible (15-29% chance) Tuesday afternoon and evening. The greatest risk lies to the north and west of Albany. Discussion: For Monday, surface high pressure overhead bringing dry conditions and sunny skies. High temperatures range in the 60s and 70s. Low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning range in the 40s. Tuesday starts off dry and sunny as the surface high pressure heads east. High temperatures range in the 70s and low 80s. For locations south and east of Albany, mostly dry conditions but increasing clouds during the afternoon and evening hours. For locations north and west of Albany, we are continuing to monitor an approaching low pressure system with an associated cold front to move through Tuesday evening. Here`s what we know at this forecast period for late Tuesday afternoon and early evening: Thunderstorms are favored to develop for locations north and west of Albany. Latest probabilities from the National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 for the potential for thunder is between 15 and 40 percent. When we see these low probabilities two to three days out, our forecast confidence begins increasing more for the potential for thunderstorms to develop. Exactly where is still uncertain, but latest guidance has locations north and west of Albany in the greatest risk area to see thunderstorms. Taking an even deeper dive, there is a 15 to 29 percent chance for severe thunderstorms to develop for the locations mentioned above. While the last few days we`ve been communicating this, it`s important to be prepared for the risk on Tuesday of a few storms becoming severe where the primary hazard is going to be winds gusting to more than 58 mph. As we lose daytime heating on Tuesday, storms are favored to weaken before approaching the Greater Capital District and locations eastward. Continue to monitor updated forecasts for timing of thunderstorms and the severe potential. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Behind the departing frontal boundary, quiet weather is expected to return to the region for Wednesday as high pressure builds towards the area from the Great Lakes. Decreasing clouds are expected through the morning hours, with mostly sunny skies by afternoon and comfortable temperatures in the 60s. Dewpoints will be noticeably lower than Tuesday, with values mainly in the 30s, along with breezy northwest winds. After a cool night on Wednesday night, Thursday will be another seasonably mild day with temps back up into the 60s. Clouds will be increasing on Thursday, as the next system starts to approach and some light rain showers are possible by later in the day, especially for western areas. However, the best chance of rain looks to be on Thursday night into early Friday and again late Friday into Friday night, as a series of low pressure areas impact the region. The initial system will slide by to the northwest for Thursday night, but keep a boundary close to the area, with another low pressure area expected to ride up this front late Friday into Friday night. As a result, on and off showers are expected for the late week, but precip amounts don`t look overly excessive at this time. Daytime temps should still reach into the 60s for Friday, although it will be fairly cloudy through the day. Cooler weather is expected for the weekend, although Saturday will be mainly dry with partial sunshine. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18z Monday...A cyclonic flow regime will be in place through the rest of the day resulting in mainly BKN cigs at VFR levels, except MVFR at KPSF through around 20z. Rapid clearing should occur this evening as a dry air mass associated with high pressure builds in from the west. Clear skies should then prevail through the rest of the 24 hour TAF period. Winds will be northwest around 15-20 kt with gusts of 25-30 kt, gradually decreasing to less than 10 kt by late this evening, with light winds expected overnight into early Monday morning. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant/Webb SHORT TERM...Gant/Webb LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...JPV