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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 231320 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 920 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be cool with showers gradually ending from northwest to southeast. Skies will gradually clear as high pressure slowly builds in from the Midwest. Seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 9:20 AM...light rain and showers have diminished and now only over our southeast half of area. Mainly light showers with steadiest light rain over Windham County, Vermont. Clearing skies over southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Radar loop shows rainfall will continue to diminish, but satellite loop shows not much additional improvement in cloud cover expected until this afternoon. Cool temps in the 60s everywhere, with a light northerly breeze. Previous discussion... GOES16 water vapor imagery shows our slow moving positively tilted trough still oriented over the Ohio Valley with strong southwesterly flow pumping a ribbon of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up the East Coast and over our stalled frontal boundary. Thus, showers have persisted from the Capital District south and east through the overnight. Latest IR imagery shows an area of cooler cloud tops in eastern PA associated with a developing low riding northeastward along our boundary. Latest radar trends have shown an expanding area of precipitation associated its deformation band and we agree with the latest high resolution guidance (especially the HRRR) that track a widespread area of rain into the mid-Hudson Valley, Catskills, western New England and parts of the Capital Region mainly from 09z/5am to 15z/11am this morning. This will give these areas a wet morning commute. There should be a sharp northern and western precipitation cut-off from northern Washington County, Saratoga County into the Mohawk Valley coincident with the 700mb temperature and moisture gradient. After 15z/11am, the aforementioned low should exit into New England, ending the widespread rainfall from northwest to southeast. Total QPF ranges from 0.25 inches in the Capital District to around 0.50 inch south and east into the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England. The sharp northern and western cut-off means should leave only a few hundredths to near a tenth over the Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and northern areas of the Upper Hudson Valley. Since our positively tilted trough will be very slow to shift eastward, 700mb moisture persists from the Capital Region south and east through most of the afternoon, keeping skies mostly cloudy into the afternoon with even a few leftover showers possible (best chances in western New England). By mid-late PM, breaks of sun should work into the Adirondacks and the western Mohawk Valley as northerly flow advects in mid-level dry air. With northerly flow continuing in the wake of our boundary, temperatures will once again be below normal today with highs only reaching into the low to mid 70s for most areas. Actually, western New England should be the coolest with highs staying in the 60s thanks to the period of rain in the morning and thicker cloud coverage. Heading into tonight, clouds gradually clear as northerly flow ushers in drier air and our trough axis moves overhead. Temperatures should cool into the 50s by sunrise Wednesday with 40s expected in parts of the Adirondacks. Dew points should also fall into the 50s throughout the area, leading to low humidity. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... With our 500mb trough axis overhead on Wednesday, expect morning sun to mix with afternoon clouds as areas reach the convective temperatures. 700mb moisture is paltry so any diurnal showers that do develop should be isolated. Did not include thunder at this time due to low dew points in the 50s. Otherwise, temperatures Wednesday should be slightly warmer than Tuesday due to increased sunshine with most areas warming into the mid- upper 70s to near 80 in the Hudson Valley. With dew points remaining low, Wednesday should be a very pleasant day. Clear skies Wednesday night combined with low dew points should allow for good radiational cooling so expecting another night with low temperatures dropping into the 50s. By Thursday, ridging from the Great Lakes shifts eastwards with a surface warm front moving into our area. Again, 700mb moisture looks dry but the GFS and CMC-NH continue to show a few showers developing in the afternoon as warm air advection increases so continued to show slight chance POPs mainly north and west of the Capital Region. Temperatures should respond as southwesterly flow returns with high temperatures warming into the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points also increase back towards 60F as well due to this flow regime. Low temperatures Thursday night should be milder than the previous two nights falling into the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Increasing heat and humidity through the period. Ridging across the region, at the surface and aloft, will dominate resulting in mainly fair weather. However, some short waves are expected to pass to our north and shear out as they move across eastern Canada. With increasing warmth and dew points conditions are expected to support the threat for isolated to scattered diurnal convection Sunday and Monday. Expecting highs in the 80s each day with 70s limited to above 1500 feet Friday and above 2000 feet over the weekend into early next week. Some locales in the Hudson River Valley may hit the 90 degree mark on Sunday. As the dew points, humidity levels, rise so will the heat indices. By Sunday anticipating dew points into the 60s with heat indices into the lower 90s up the Hudson Valley with some mid 90s indices possible. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The wave of low pressure moving along the stalled boundary to our south across the New York Metro area and Long Island will gradually move off to the east today. As it does the persist rain we have had will come to an end this morning, however clouds will linger most of the day. A gradual improvement will occur as the day progresses as drier air works in. VFR conditions are expected to develop by early afternoon at KALB and later in the day at KPOU and KPSF. Variably cloudy skies are expected tonight. Light north-northeast winds will become calm this evening. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Areas of rain are expected this morning before drier conditions arrive this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be between 50 and 70 percent today. Maximum relative humidity values are expected to range 80 and 95 percent tonight. North to northwest winds remain in place today sustained between 5 and 15 mph with light northerly winds remaining in place on Wednesday near or less than 5 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... After a widespread soaking rainfall produced 0.50 to 1.50 inches across eastern New York and western New England on Monday, waves of low pressure riding along our stalled frontal boundary will produce additional areas of rain heading into Tuesday morning. Overall, expecting the steadiest rain through about midday Tuesday for areas from the Capital District south and east into the mid-Hudson Valley and western New England with a sharp northern cut-off. Additional brief showers are possible through sunset before we finally dry out Tuesday night. Overall, expecting an additional 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain (highest amounts in western New England). Latest FLASH soil moisture products show only a few areas near the 50% saturated threshold so do not anticipate any flooding of rivers/streams/creeks and any poor drainage/urbanized flooding should be isolated. Please visit our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ web page for specific area rivers and lakes observations and forecasts. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Speciale NEAR TERM...SND/Speciale SHORT TERM...Speciale LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...Speciale HYDROLOGY...Speciale