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Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion
000 FXUS61 KALY 101037 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 637 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually shift eastward off the New England coast through tonight. A southerly flow will continue to provide warm conditions. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday morning, as a low pressure system gradually approaches from the Great Lakes region. It will turn cooler Sunday into early next week, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers persisting. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Persistent clouds over much of the region but some holes in the clouds in parts of southern VT, the Berkshires and near and just south of the Capital Region. Thickening high clouds in the OH Valley spreading east. Boundary layer ridge axis will build over our region today and boundary layer winds weaken but remain west. This suggests the clouds over our region will mix out from north to south through the day, aided by the strong April sun as well. The breaking up of the clouds is suggested in sources of mesoscale guidance, too. The mid Hudson Valley to NW CT and perhaps the very southern part of the Berkshires near the CT border may not clear until later this afternoon and may not completely clear as light south surface flow could keep some of the cloud cover in place. Highs this afternoon around 70 to the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Leading edge of deeper cloud cover and moisture expected to slowly and steadily move east. The timing of the best low level forcing and deepest moisture should Sunday morning in southern and western areas and then spreading to the rest of the region through the day. Highs Sunday around 60 to mid 60s. The band of moisture slowly and steadily moves east Sunday night into Monday morning. There is some uncertainty as to the timing of the exit of the rain and how the coverage of showers decreases as upper energy dives south off eastern Canada and New England, providing some upper confluence downstream, supporting low level ridging to build south and west out of eastern Canada into New England, maybe into NY. Indicating decreasing coverage of showers Monday and Monday night as the upper cut off in the OH Valley and Great Lakes remains somewhat stationary and some low level drying and cooling spreads south and west across New England and how far west into NY is uncertain. There will still be considerable cloudiness across our region even with the decreasing coverage of showers as midlevel and upper level moisture will still spread into our region around the circulation of the upper low in the Great Lakes. Highs Monday in the lower to mid 50s. Lows Monday night in the lower 40s with some upper 30s higher terrain. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper level pattern will be dominated by slow moving closed off upper level lows. This will make for a cloudy, cooler and occasionally showery weather pattern across eastern New York and western New England through much of the long term period. While there are some model differences regarding the exact location and movement of the upper level features, most models show show the main upper level low over the Midwest on Tuesday heading towards the Northeast and mid Atlantic states for Wednesday. With the expected cyclonic flow in place, will go with slight to low chc POPs across our area for Tues-Wed. Temps will be held down somewhat due to the clouds and possible showers, especially by Wednesday, as the lower height and cooler temps aloft keep surface temps a little lower. Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s for Tuesday and upper 40s to upper 50s for Wednesday. Overnight lows should mainly be in the 30s and 40s. The pattern isn`t very clear for the late week. While the initial upper level low may try to exit to the east, another upper level low located offshore New England may block the flow pattern. In addition, another closed off disturbance could allow be approaching from the northwest at some point late in the week as well. It`s too difficult to tell this far in advance how these features will all interact with each other. For now, will keep slight to low chc POPs in the forecast due to the nearby disturbances and expected cyclonic flow, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky for Thursday and Friday. Will keep temps close to the model blend, which allows for valley highs in the upper 50s and lows in upper 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IR satellite imagery show some lower clouds of around 1500-3000 ft have been building northward through the overnight hours. These clouds have overspread much of the area and may allow for some periods of MVFR cigs this morning, especially for the next few hours. Once daytime mixing establishes itself, these clouds should dissipate/mix out towards the mid to late morning hours. It may take longest for this to occur near KPOU. By afternoon, it should be back to VFR conditions for all sites with just some passing cirrus and a few cumulus clouds. There should be just some increasing high level clouds for this evening, but some lower clouds will start to move back into the area for tonight. MVFR cigs should return by later tonight for all sites, although it may take until the very late night hours or early morning on Sunday for this to occur further north at KALB/KGFL. Any showers will likely hold off until after sunrise Sunday. Light south to southeast winds are expected today, generally under 10 kts. Winds will be very light or calm for tonight. Outlook... Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will gradually shift eastward off the New England coast through tonight. A southerly flow will continue to provide warm conditions. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday morning, as a low pressure system gradually approaches from the Great Lakes region. It will turn cooler Sunday into early next week, with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers persisting. Minimum RH values this afternoon are forecast to be around 30 to 45 percent, increasing to maximum values of between 90 and 100 percent tonight. RH values Sunday afternoon are expected to be above 60 percent with rain moving into the region Winds through Saturday will be south at less than 15 mph. Winds will become southeast tonight at less than 15 mph and continue through Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... With continued dry weather in place through tonight, river and stream levels will remain fairly steady through at least the first half of the weekend. Some rain is expected Sunday into Sunday night, with the chance for some additional rainfall into early next week. At this point, widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated (most spots should see around a third of an inch to three quarters of an inch), and any rainfall is much needed due to the recent dry conditions. No flooding is expected, with only minimal river rises expected into early next week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis FIRE WEATHER...NAS HYDROLOGY...NAS