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NY Extremes

============
for Thursday,
September 19, 2019
============
High Temp
77°F at Buffalo/Greater Intl, NY
Low Temp
25°F at Saranac Lake/Adirondac, NY
Precipitation
No Precipitation Reported for NY
============

USA Extremes

============
High Temp
104°F at Del Rio/Intl, TX
104°F at San Antonio/Stinson, TX
Low Temp
25°F at Saranac Lake/Adirondac, NY
Precipitation
11.18in at Conroe Montgomery Cty, TX
============
Data from
NWS CPC

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NWS Forecast
Fri, 20-Sep-2019 7:19
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Mostly Clear then Patchy Fog
Saturday

Saturday: Patchy Fog then Sunny
Patchy Fog then Sunny
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Mostly Clear
Mostly Clear
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
Mostly Cloudy then Slight Chance Rain Showers
Monday

Monday: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Showers And T-Storms Likely
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Showers And Thunderstorms Likely
Showers And T-Storms Likely
Tuesday

Tuesday: Chance Rain Showers
Chance Rain Showers
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Partly Cloudy
Lo 49 °FHi 80 °FLo 55 °FHi 81 °FLo 64 °FHi 76 °FLo 54 °FHi 66 °FLo 48 °F
 
OUR Forecast
16:00
Tonight

Fog late
Fog late		Saturday

Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny		Saturday
night
Clear
Clear		Sunday

Chance rain
Chance rain		Sunday
night
Fog
Fog		Monday

Thunder storm
Thunder storm		Monday
night
Thunder storm
Thunder storm		Tuesday

Chance rain
Chance rain		Tuesday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Low: 51°High: 80°Low: 51°High: 81°Low: 64°High: 74°Low: 56°High: 66°Low: 50°


NWS & Our Forecast Comparison for Hessville, NY

National Weather Service Forecast (NW), Actual Observed (Act), Our Forecast (WS)

2am Overnight Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 00Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 09-20-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 44   46 71   75 52   49 77   79 55   50 82   81 62   61 74   75
09-19-19 38 38.6 42 70 69.4 71 44   45 74   75 53   48 76   80 57   51 80   81
09-18-19 41 43.3 44 67 68.0 68 41 38.6 42 69 69.4 71 48   43 75   75 54   49 78   76
09-17-19 43 46.8 46 70 71.3 71 43 43.3 44 68 68.0 69 42 38.6 45 70 69.4 72 49   46 75   76
09-16-19 55 53.7 57 70 70.6 72 44 46.8 49 67 71.3 71 45 43.3 47 69 68.0 69 47 38.6 47 72 69.4 72
09-15-19 54 54.4 54 70 72.6 73 55 53.7 58 68 70.6 70 46 46.8 48 69 71.3 69 46 43.3 46 70 68.0 69
09-14-19 56 54.9 56 69 68.9 68 54 54.4 55 71 72.6 73 55 53.7 59 70 70.6 65 49 46.8 50 70 71.3 70
09-13-19 41 43.4 45 68 68.1 70 52 54.9 52 69 68.9 68 54 54.4 55 74 72.6 74 57 53.7 58 73 70.6 69
09-12-19 59 58.6 64 64 59.2 66 46 43.4 48 69 68.1 70 53 54.9 55 73 68.9 66 56 54.4 56 76 72.6 78
09-11-19 64 66.5 66 81 81.3 80 60 58.6 61 69 59.2 67 47 43.4 47 70 68.1 71 56 54.9 56 73 68.9 74
09-10-19 49 48.0 50 74 77.6 70 62 66.5 62 82 81.3 76 61 58.6 66 72 59.2 74 52 43.4 57 70 68.1 69
09-09-19 45 43.3 48 68 68.7 68 46 48.0 49 73 77.6 67 61 66.5 60 80 81.3 75 61 58.6 59 73 59.2 70
09-08-19 50 54.0 52 67 66.4 63 44 43.3 47 68 68.7 68 46 48.0 48 72 77.6 66 60 66.5 59 79 81.3 77
09-07-19 49 49.5 52 67 65.4 66 52 54.0 59 66 66.4 68 45 43.3 57 67 68.7 68 48 48.0 57 72 77.6 72
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 11 11 12 11 11 7 9 9 10 5 8 7 7 5 7 5
% Succ 84.6   84.6 92.3   84.6 91.7   58.3 75.0   75.0 90.9   45.5 72.7   63.6 70.0   50.0 70.0   50.0
Ave Error 1.7   2.2 1.4   2.1 1.9   2.9 2.2   2.7 2.2   4.4 3.0   4.7 3.7   5.2 3.9   3.9
Net Error -0.8   1.6 -0.2   -0.1 -0.5   1.7 -0.3   -0.3 0.3   3.2 0.9   -0.6 2.4   3.7 2.1   1.3
Std Dev 1.1   1.5 1.4   2.3 1.1   1.4 2.7   3.1 1.0   2.3 3.3   3.6 1.9   2.3 1.2   1.6

7am Morning Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 06Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 09-20-19 at 7:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 72   74 51   50 77   80 55   51 81   82 63   62 76   78 52   56
09-19-19 69 69.4 70 44 44.3 43 73   75 54   48 79   80 57   50 82   82 61   59
09-18-19 68 68.0 67 39 38.6 44 69 69.4 72 45 44.3 46 75   76 53   49 78   79 57   51
09-17-19 70 71.3 71 43 43.3 44 67 68.0 69 42 38.6 44 69 69.4 72 46 44.3 45 75   76 54   51
09-16-19 71 70.6 70 44 46.8 46 70 71.3 71 43 43.3 46 70 68.0 69 43 38.6 46 71 69.4 73 50 44.3 47
09-15-19 70 72.6 74 55 53.7 58 68 70.6 71 46 46.8 48 69 71.3 70 46 43.3 46 70 68.0 69 50 38.6 47
09-14-19 68 68.9 69 54 54.4 55 71 72.6 73 56 53.7 58 69 70.6 65 48 46.8 48 69 71.3 70 46 43.3 46
09-13-19 68 68.1 70 52 54.9 52 69 68.9 68 55 54.4 55 71 72.6 74 56 53.7 60 71 70.6 70 48 46.8 49
09-12-19 62 59.2 63 41 43.4 47 67 68.1 69 51 54.9 51 71 68.9 65 56 54.4 53 76 72.6 76 56 53.7 59
09-11-19 81 81.3 80 60 58.6 61 69 59.2 63 47 43.4 47 68 68.1 70 53 54.9 56 73 68.9 72 56 54.4 56
09-10-19 74 77.6 71 62 66.5 61 82 81.3 76 59 58.6 67 72 59.2 74 47 43.4 56 70 68.1 68 56 54.9 57
09-09-19 70 68.7 65 48 48.0 47 72 77.6 68 60 66.5 60 82 81.3 71 60 58.6 62 74 59.2 73 54 43.4 56
09-08-19 67 66.4 64 45 43.3 53 67 68.7 68 46 48.0 52 72 77.6 68 60 66.5 62 81 81.3 73 58 58.6 62
09-07-19 68 65.4 65 52 54.0 58 67 66.4 68 46 43.3 56 68 68.7 68 45 48.0 59 71 77.6 72 58 66.5 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 13 10 12 8 10 9 10 5 9 6 9 6 7 7 6 7
% Succ 100.0   76.9 92.3   61.5 83.3   75.0 83.3   41.7 81.8   54.5 81.8   54.5 70.0   70.0 60.0   70.0
Ave Error 1.3   1.9 1.6   3.2 2.2   2.3 2.3   4.6 2.7   4.8 2.8   4.8 3.7   4.1 4.6   4.2
Net Error -0.1   -0.7 -0.8   1.5 -0.3   -0.5 0.0   2.9 0.5   -0.9 0.7   3.7 1.9   0.9 2.8   4.2
Std Dev 1.1   1.8 1.3   2.5 2.6   2.6 1.8   2.2 3.3   3.7 0.9   3.4 1.5   1.8 2.8   1.8

1pm Mid Day Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 12Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 09-20-19 at 1:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-20-19 72   75 51   50 77   80 55   51 81   81 63   64 76   74 52   56
09-19-19 69 69.4 70 44 44.3 46 73   73 54   52 79   80 57   56 82   81 61   64
09-18-19 67 68.0 68 39 38.6 42 69 69.4 72 45 44.3 45 75   76 53   48 78   80 57   51
09-17-19 70 71.3 71 43 43.3 45 67 68.0 68 42 38.6 44 69 69.4 72 46 44.3 44 75   76 54   51
09-16-19 69 70.6 70 44 46.8 46 70 71.3 71 43 43.3 45 70 68.0 68 43 38.6 44 71 69.4 72 50 44.3 45
09-15-19 71 72.6 74 56 53.7 57 68 70.6 72 47 46.8 47 67 71.3 70 47 43.3 46 69 68.0 70 48 38.6 46
09-14-19 68 68.9 73 54 54.4 54 71 72.6 72 56 53.7 57 69 70.6 67 48 46.8 48 69 71.3 69 46 43.3 46
09-13-19 68 68.1 69 55 54.9 52 64 68.9 68 55 54.4 55 71 72.6 73 56 53.7 57 71 70.6 64 48 46.8 51
09-12-19 59 59.2 64 41 43.4 45 67 68.1 70 51 54.9 53 71 68.9 69 56 54.4 55 76 72.6 76 56 53.7 60
09-11-19 81 81.3 81 59 58.6 63 66 59.2 64 47 43.4 47 68 68.1 69 53 54.9 54 73 68.9 69 56 54.4 55
09-10-19 74 77.6 72 62 66.5 62 82 81.3 74 59 58.6 65 72 59.2 75 47 43.4 57 70 68.1 71 56 54.9 59
09-09-19 68 68.7 67 48 48.0 49 72 77.6 68 60 66.5 60 82 81.3 73 60 58.6 66 74 59.2 75 54 43.4 56
09-08-19 66 66.4 65 45 43.3 50 67 68.7 68 46 48.0 49 72 77.6 65 60 66.5 59 81 81.3 74 58 58.6 63
09-07-19 66 65.4 66 52 54.0 58 67 66.4 67 46 43.3 56 68 68.7 68 45 48.0 58 71 77.6 74 58 66.5 67
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 13 10 12 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 8 6 7 7 6 4
% Succ 100.0   76.9 92.3   69.2 75.0   75.0 83.3   66.7 72.7   72.7 72.7   54.5 70.0   70.0 60.0   40.0
Ave Error 1.0   1.7 1.4   2.8 2.4   2.6 2.2   3.7 2.9   4.2 2.8   4.8 3.6   4.7 4.4   4.4
Net Error -0.9   0.2 -0.6   1.5 -1.0   -0.7 0.1   2.3 0.3   -0.6 0.8   3.2 1.8   0.7 2.6   4.4
Std Dev 0.9   1.8 1.3   1.7 2.0   2.8 1.8   2.2 3.3   4.3 1.0   3.7 1.5   2.1 2.3   2.1

7pm Evening Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 18Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 09-19-19 at 7:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
09-19-19 45   46 71   74 52   50 77   79 55   51 82   81 62   63 74   76
09-18-19 38 38.6 43 70 69.4 71 44   44 74   75 53   49 76   79 57   51 80   80
09-17-19 43 43.3 46 67 68.0 68 41 38.6 43 69 69.4 71 48   44 75   76 54   50 78   78
09-16-19 45 46.8 46 70 71.3 71 43 43.3 45 68 68.0 69 42 38.6 46 70 69.4 72 49   46 75   76
09-15-19 55 53.7 56 70 70.6 72 44 46.8 47 67 71.3 71 45 43.3 47 69 68.0 70 47 38.6 45 72 69.4 73
09-14-19 54 54.4 53 70 72.6 72 55 53.7 59 68 70.6 68 46 46.8 48 69 71.3 69 46 43.3 47 70 68.0 69
09-13-19 54 54.9 53 69 68.9 68 54 54.4 55 71 72.6 73 55 53.7 59 70 70.6 69 49 46.8 49 70 71.3 69
09-12-19 43 43.4 44 68 68.1 70 52 54.9 51 69 68.9 69 54 54.4 56 74 72.6 75 57 53.7 61 73 70.6 72
09-11-19 59 58.6 63 64 59.2 65 46 43.4 48 69 68.1 69 53 54.9 53 73 68.9 69 56 54.4 55 76 72.6 76
09-10-19 64 66.5 67 81 81.3 80 60 58.6 65 69 59.2 71 47 43.4 52 70 68.1 71 56 54.9 59 73 68.9 72
09-09-19 48 48.0 53 74 77.6 67 62 66.5 60 82 81.3 73 61 58.6 65 72 59.2 73 52 43.4 56 70 68.1 68
09-08-19 45 43.3 49 68 68.7 68 46 48.0 49 73 77.6 67 61 66.5 59 80 81.3 73 61 58.6 62 73 59.2 69
09-07-19 50 54.0 53 67 66.4 67 44 43.3 52 68 68.7 68 46 48.0 51 72 77.6 69 60 66.5 61 79 81.3 76
09-06-19 49 49.5 57 67 65.4 65 52 54.0 56 66 66.4 67 45 43.3 54 67 68.7 68 48 48.0 55 72 77.6 72
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 12 8 12 11 11 5 9 9 10 4 8 8 7 3 7 7
% Succ 92.3   61.5 92.3   84.6 91.7   41.7 75.0   75.0 90.9   36.4 72.7   72.7 70.0   30.0 70.0   70.0
Ave Error 1.1   2.9 1.4   2.0 1.9   3.8 2.2   3.2 2.2   5.2 3.0   4.1 3.7   5.3 3.9   3.6
Net Error -0.6   2.2 -0.2   -0.3 -0.5   2.0 -0.3   -0.5 0.3   3.5 0.9   0.2 2.4   4.2 2.1   0.9
Std Dev 1.1   1.7 1.4   2.8 1.1   2.1 2.7   4.0 1.0   2.3 3.3   3.4 1.9   2.0 1.2   1.1

Script credited to Jim at jcweather.us.
Dual Image forecast icons credited to Ken at Saratoga-Weather.org.