NWS Forecast
Sat, 25-Jan-2020 4:05
Tonight

Tonight: Chance Sleet
Chance Sleet
Sunday

Sunday: Chance Snow Showers
Chance Snow Showers
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Chance Snow Showers
Chance Snow Showers
Monday

Monday: Chance Snow Showers
Chance Snow Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Slight Chance Snow Showers
Slight Chance Snow Showers
Tuesday

Tuesday: Slight Chance Snow Showers
Slight Chance Snow Showers
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Slight Chance Snow Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Slight Chance Snow Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Lo 32 °FHi 37 °FLo 32 °FHi 34 °FLo 26 °FHi 31 °FLo 16 °FHi 30 °FLo 10 °F
 
OUR Forecast
16:00
Tonight

Rain and Snow
Rain and Snow
Sunday

Snow
Snow
Sunday
night
Snow
Snow
Monday

Snow
Snow
Monday
night
Fog late
Cold!
Fog late
Cold!
Tuesday

Fog a.m.
Cold!
Fog a.m.
Cold!
Tuesday
night
Fog late
Cold!
Fog late
Cold!
Wednesday

Fog a.m.
Cold!
Fog a.m.
Cold!
Wednesday
night
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Low: 28°High: 34°Low: 28°High: 34°Low: 23°High: 30°Low: 16°High: 28°Low: 13°


NWS & Our Forecast Comparison for Hessville, NY

National Weather Service Forecast (NW), Actual Observed (Act), Our Forecast (WS)

2am Overnight Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 00Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 01-25-20 at 2:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-25-20 27   28 35   40 32   31 36   36 31   29 35   33 26   25 33   31
01-24-20 19 20.9 21 37 37.4 40 28   28 35   38 33   31 35   35 29   29 36   34
01-23-20 9 15.6 17 37 33.3 36 18 20.9 23 38 37.4 36 26   26 33   35 31   30 34   34
01-22-20 10 16.6 13 34 34.7 32 12 15.6 15 39 33.3 37 20 20.9 22 39 37.4 37 26   25 34   34
01-21-20 0 7.0 6 21 22.1 21 10 16.6 12 34 34.7 31 10 15.6 14 39 33.3 35 17 20.9 21 38 37.4 38
01-20-20 4 5.8 5 16 15.6 18 3 7.0 4 22 22.1 22 16 16.6 13 32 34.7 32 14 15.6 15 38 33.3 36
01-19-20 15 14.8 18 30 32.3 31 8 5.8 5 18 15.6 17 3 7.0 2 22 22.1 23 9 16.6 18 31 34.7 31
01-18-20 -1 2.5 5 22 14.7 22 22 14.8 18 30 32.3 32 10 5.8 7 20 15.6 17 3 7.0 4 19 22.1 15
01-17-20 6 2.5 4 15 11.2 15 2 2.5 6 26 14.7 22 26 14.8 19 32 32.3 32 13 5.8 8 22 15.6 20
01-16-20 30 28.6 30 36 34.6 37 7 2.5 6 17 11.2 14 -1 2.5 7 29 14.7 23 25 14.8 21 32 32.3 27
01-15-20 34 36.5 34 38 40.3 39 32 28.6 31 33 34.6 36 8 2.5 5 15 11.2 15 4 2.5 9 29 14.7 21
01-14-20 29 29.6 30 38 40.3 41 32 36.5 34 40 40.3 40 31 28.6 32 36 34.6 36 10 2.5 8 18 11.2 14
01-13-20 24 25.6 25 37 34.3 38 29 29.6 29 42 40.3 40 34 36.5 32 39 40.3 39 29 28.6 29 35 34.6 33
01-12-20 50 56.4 53 53 52.4 55 23 25.6 25 38 34.3 37 29 29.6 29 43 40.3 41 37 36.5 31 43 40.3 37
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 9 13 10 10 7 11 8 9 6 7 7 9 4 6 5 5
% Succ 69.2   100.0 76.9   76.9 58.3   91.7 66.7   75.0 54.5   63.6 63.6   81.8 40.0   60.0 50.0   50.0
Ave Error 3.4   1.7 2.2   2.7 3.6   2.3 3.0   2.1 3.7   2.9 3.5   2.1 4.4   3.1 4.3   3.8
Net Error -2.6   -0.1 0.8   1.7 -0.7   0.2 2.2   1.1 0.5   0.1 2.7   1.2 1.0   1.3 2.9   -0.4
Std Dev 2.2   1.0 1.8   1.6 1.7   1.1 3.1   1.9 2.7   1.2 3.7   2.1 2.4   1.7 1.9   1.6

7am Morning Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 06Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 01-25-20 at 7:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-25-20 35   38 32   30 37   36 32   28 35   34 27   24 32   31 19   16
01-24-20 40 37.4 40 26 28.3 27 35   37 32   31 37   36 31   29 34   34 26   24
01-23-20 37 33.3 35 13 20.9 22 39 37.4 37 27 28.3 26 35   37 32   29 36   34 29   27
01-22-20 32 34.7 37 9 15.6 17 37 33.3 38 18 20.9 22 38 37.4 38 26 28.3 25 35   34 30   30
01-21-20 22 22.1 24 13 16.6 12 33 34.7 32 15 15.6 13 40 33.3 36 20 20.9 22 37 37.4 37 25 28.3 26
01-20-20 17 15.6 21 2 7.0 5 23 22.1 23 13 16.6 11 32 34.7 32 13 15.6 15 38 33.3 37 19 20.9 19
01-19-20 30 32.3 32 7 5.8 5 17 15.6 17 2 7.0 3 23 22.1 24 14 16.6 17 32 34.7 31 16 15.6 14
01-18-20 22 14.7 20 22 14.8 18 31 32.3 30 10 5.8 7 18 15.6 17 5 7.0 3 19 22.1 19 6 16.6 13
01-17-20 16 11.2 14 -2 2.5 5 24 14.7 22 24 14.8 19 29 32.3 31 11 5.8 10 20 15.6 20 4 7.0 5
01-16-20 36 34.6 36 7 2.5 7 17 11.2 15 -1 2.5 7 25 14.7 22 25 14.8 20 32 32.3 29 14 5.8 11
01-15-20 39 40.3 41 30 28.6 31 34 34.6 36 6 2.5 6 15 11.2 15 1 2.5 8 29 14.7 23 25 14.8 22
01-14-20 41 40.3 41 34 36.5 33 40 40.3 41 30 28.6 30 35 34.6 33 9 2.5 5 17 11.2 15 7 2.5 8
01-13-20 37 34.3 38 29 29.6 29 41 40.3 40 34 36.5 32 38 40.3 39 29 28.6 29 36 34.6 33 12 2.5 8
01-12-20 56 25.6 61 22 52.4 24 37 34.3 37 28 29.6 29 42 40.3 39 35 36.5 32 40 40.3 38 30 28.6 27
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 9 9 6 10 9 9 9 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 5 6
% Succ 69.2   69.2 46.2   76.9 75.0   75.0 75.0   58.3 72.7   81.8 72.7   54.5 60.0   50.0 50.0   60.0
Ave Error 4.7   4.9 6.0   4.3 2.5   2.4 3.3   3.0 3.2   2.4 3.2   2.9 3.7   3.5 5.3   3.6
Net Error 3.7   4.9 -3.8   -2.0 1.9   1.4 -0.2   -0.3 1.7   0.9 0.8   0.6 2.4   0.6 1.5   1.0
Std Dev 2.7   2.9 3.0   2.3 2.5   1.9 2.1   1.3 2.6   1.7 2.4   1.6 1.6   1.0 2.9   1.2

1pm Mid Day Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 12Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 01-25-20 at 1:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-25-20 36   35 32   27 37   34 32   28 35   34 27   23 32   30 19   15
01-24-20 40 37.4 36 26 28.3 26 35   39 32   31 37   37 31   29 34   33 26   23
01-23-20 38 33.3 34 22 20.9 20 37 37.4 38 28 28.3 25 35   36 33   31 35   35 29   28
01-22-20 32 34.7 31 17 15.6 14 35 33.3 37 21 20.9 23 38 37.4 37 26 28.3 26 35   35 30   31
01-21-20 22 22.1 21 13 16.6 10 33 34.7 31 15 15.6 14 40 33.3 36 20 20.9 22 37 37.4 36 25 28.3 25
01-20-20 16 15.6 16 2 7.0 2 23 22.1 23 13 16.6 13 32 34.7 32 13 15.6 15 38 33.3 37 19 20.9 19
01-19-20 33 32.3 30 7 5.8 4 17 15.6 17 2 7.0 3 23 22.1 24 14 16.6 16 32 34.7 31 16 15.6 13
01-18-20 21 14.7 13 21 14.8 12 31 32.3 28 10 5.8 4 18 15.6 18 5 7.0 4 19 22.1 23 6 16.6 19
01-17-20 15 11.2 11 -2 2.5 4 24 14.7 21 24 14.8 19 29 32.3 30 11 5.8 8 20 15.6 18 4 7.0 8
01-16-20 36 34.6 32 7 2.5 5 17 11.2 15 -1 2.5 6 25 14.7 22 25 14.8 20 32 32.3 30 14 5.8 11
01-15-20 38 40.3 41 31 28.6 30 34 34.6 37 6 2.5 6 15 11.2 14 1 2.5 8 29 14.7 22 25 14.8 21
01-14-20 41 40.3 38 33 36.5 33 40 40.3 39 30 28.6 31 35 34.6 36 9 2.5 5 17 11.2 14 7 2.5 8
01-13-20 37 34.3 34 29 29.6 27 41 40.3 39 34 36.5 32 38 40.3 40 29 28.6 30 36 34.6 33 12 2.5 8
01-12-20 61 52.4 42 23 25.6 23 36 34.3 37 29 29.6 29 42 40.3 39 34 36.5 32 40 40.3 38 30 28.6 28
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 9 11 9 11 10 7 9 9 8 10 8 8 6 7 5 6
% Succ 69.2   84.6 69.2   84.6 83.3   58.3 75.0   75.0 72.7   90.9 72.7   72.7 60.0   70.0 50.0   60.0
Ave Error 2.8   2.1 3.0   2.7 2.2   2.7 2.9   2.9 3.2   2.3 3.3   2.6 3.7   2.8 5.3   3.4
Net Error 2.1   -1.9 -0.4   -1.9 1.4   0.9 0.2   -0.3 1.7   1.0 0.7   0.6 2.4   0.6 1.5   1.7
Std Dev 1.8   1.2 1.6   1.5 2.5   1.6 2.4   0.8 2.6   1.6 2.4   1.5 1.6   0.9 2.9   1.1

7pm Evening Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 18Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 01-24-20 at 7:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
01-24-20 27   29 35   40 32   30 36   37 31   29 35   33 26   24 33   32
01-23-20 21 20.9 20 37 37.4 37 28   26 35   37 33   31 35   35 29   29 36   34
01-22-20 11 15.6 15 37 33.3 36 18 20.9 23 38 37.4 38 26   27 33   36 31   33 34   35
01-21-20 10 16.6 9 34 34.7 31 12 15.6 14 39 33.3 36 20 20.9 21 39 37.4 38 26   27 34   33
01-20-20 0 7.0 4 21 22.1 22 10 16.6 13 34 34.7 32 10 15.6 14 39 33.3 36 17 20.9 17 38 37.4 37
01-19-20 4 5.8 2 16 15.6 17 3 7.0 2 22 22.1 23 16 16.6 16 32 34.7 31 14 15.6 15 38 33.3 37
01-18-20 20 14.8 11 30 32.3 27 8 5.8 5 18 15.6 18 3 7.0 4 22 22.1 24 9 16.6 18 31 34.7 31
01-17-20 -3 2.5 11 22 14.7 4 22 14.8 21 30 32.3 19 10 5.8 30 20 15.6 8 3 7.0 18 19 22.1 8
01-16-20 6 11.2 3 15 2.5 14 2 2.5 6 26 14.7 20 26 14.8 18 32 32.3 30 13 5.8 10 22 15.6 19
01-15-20 33 28.6 29 33 34.6 36 7 11.2 6 17 2.5 13 -1 2.5 7 29 14.7 23 25 14.8 21 32 32.3 27
01-14-20 34 36.5 33 38 40.3 41 32 28.6 31 33 34.6 36 8 11.2 6 15 2.5 16 4 2.5 9 29 14.7 23
01-13-20 29 29.6 28 38 40.3 40 32 36.5 32 40 40.3 40 31 28.6 30 36 34.6 32 10 11.2 7 18 2.5 13
01-12-20 26 25.6 23 37 34.3 37 29 29.6 29 42 40.3 39 34 36.5 32 39 40.3 38 29 28.6 28 35 34.6 31
01-11-20 56 56.4 54 57 52.4 57 23 25.6 23 38 34.3 35 29 29.6 30 43 40.3 41 37 36.5 33 43 40.3 39
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 6 8 9 8 7 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 4
% Succ 46.2   61.5 69.2   61.5 58.3   66.7 66.7   75.0 63.6   63.6 63.6   63.6 50.0   40.0 50.0   40.0
Ave Error 3.4   3.6 3.2   3.5 3.5   3.2 3.7   3.5 3.5   4.4 4.3   4.2 3.8   4.2 5.2   5.4
Net Error -1.9   -2.2 1.6   0.3 -1.4   -0.8 2.9   0.6 -0.3   1.7 3.5   0.8 0.2   1.7 3.8   -0.3
Std Dev 2.3   2.7 3.2   3.6 1.7   1.5 4.4   3.9 2.7   6.3 4.4   3.6 2.7   2.7 2.3   3.3

Script credited to Jim at jcweather.us.
Dual Image forecast icons credited to Ken at Saratoga-Weather.org.