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NY Extremes

============
for Sunday,
February 17, 2019
============
High Temp
38°F at Islip/Macarthur, NY
38°F at New York City, NY
38°F at Poughkeepsie/Dutchess, NY
Low Temp
-14°F at Saranac Lake/Adirondac, NY
Precipitation
0.18in at Monticello(awos), NY
============

USA Extremes

============
High Temp
88°F at Winter Haven, FL
Low Temp
-19°F at Great Falls/Intl, MT
-19°F at Great Falls, MT
Precipitation
1.85in at Oak Ridge (asos), TN
============
Data from
NWS CPC

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NWS Forecast
Tue, 19-Feb-2019 12:38
Overnight

Overnight: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Tuesday

Tuesday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Wednesday

Wednesday: Mostly Cloudy then Light Snow Likely
Mostly Cloudy then Light Snow Likely
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Light Snow
Light Snow
Thursday

Thursday: Chance Sleet
Chance Sleet
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Slight Chance Light Rain then Mostly Cloudy
Slight Chance Light Rain then Mostly Cloudy
Friday

Friday: Partly Sunny
Partly Sunny
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Lo 5 °FHi 22 °FLo 8 °FHi 28 °FLo 25 °FHi 41 °FLo 24 °FHi 36 °FLo 20 °F
 
OUR Forecast
2:00
Rest of
tonight
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy		Tuesday

Partly Cloudy Cold!
Partly Cloudy
Cold!		Tuesday
night
Partly Cloudy Cold!
Partly Cloudy
Cold!		Wednesday

Mostly Cloudy Cold!
Mostly Cloudy
Cold!		Wednesday
night
Rain Sleet Cold!
Rain Sleet
Cold!		Thursday

Rain and Snow Cold!
Rain and Snow
Cold!		Thursday
night
Mostly Cloudy Cold!
Mostly Cloudy
Cold!		Friday

Mostly Cloudy Cold!
Mostly Cloudy
Cold!		Friday
night
Fog
Fog
Low: 5°High: 21°Low: 10°High: 31°Low: 25° High: 40°Low: 25°High: 34°Low: 20°


NWS & Our Forecast Comparison for Hessville, NY

National Weather Service Forecast (NW), Actual Observed (Act), Our Forecast (WS)

2am Overnight Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 00Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 02-19-19 at 2:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-19-19 5   5 22   21 8   10 28   31 25   25 41   40 24   25 36   34
02-14-19 21 17.4 20 32 29.8 34 26   25 43   42 21   20 29   30 8   11 27   31
02-13-19 16 16.3 21 31 34.0 34 22 17.4 22 33 29.8 33 26   26 40   40 25   20 31   26
02-06-19 22 20.8 23 33 16.8 40 31 16.3 33 42 34.0 46 36 17.4 38 48 29.8 47 17   18 25   23
02-05-19 40 43.4 42 44 50.2 47 19 20.8 24 31 16.8 40 30 16.3 32 41 34.0 42 37 17.4 37 50 29.8 50
02-02-19 -3 27.7 -1 27 58.3 29 22 43.4 24 37 50.2 36 32 20.8 32 44 16.8 44 36 16.3 35 44 34.0 39
02-01-19 -6 -3.7 -9 12 15.0 12 0 27.7 -4 29 58.3 27 21 43.4 22 35 50.2 35 31 20.8 33 45 16.8 41
01-31-19 -8 -6.1 -8 8 20.9 5 -5 -3.7 -11 13 15.0 12 1 27.7 -2 29 58.3 31 19 43.4 21 35 50.2 34
01-26-19 7 25.7 8 19 20.9 19 13 -6.1 13 32 20.9 33 10 -3.7 6 19 15.0 25 11 27.7 15 32 58.3 34
01-25-19 20 25.7 18 27 29.5 24 7 25.7 6 19 20.9 20 13 -6.1 15 30 20.9 31 11 -3.7 6 18 15.0 15
01-24-19 38 37.1 41 42 40.4 43 21 25.7 18 25 29.5 26 6 25.7 8 16 20.9 19 11 -6.1 16 28 20.9 24
01-23-19 7 6.1 8 37 40.4 34 35 37.1 33 37 40.4 43 19 25.7 18 24 29.5 24 4 25.7 5 17 20.9 17
01-22-19 -4 -4.8 -7 18 15.4 17 12 6.1 10 37 40.4 35 33 37.1 34 34 40.4 38 18 25.7 16 24 29.5 19
01-21-19 -10 -10.6 -14 1 4.2 -1 -6 -4.8 -10 20 15.4 18 13 6.1 10 37 40.4 35 34 37.1 27 39 40.4 30
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 10 7 9 6 4 1 5 6 0 1 1 2 1 0 2 2
% Succ 76.9   53.8 69.2   46.2 33.3   8.3 41.7   50.0     9.1 9.1   18.2 10.0   0.0 20.0   20.0
Ave Error 5.5   6.4 6.9   7.8 10.3   11.9 8.2   9.5 14.8   14.7 11.8   11.8 15.5   15.8 12.1   11.8
Net Error -4.2   -4.1 -3.4   -3.0 -2.9   -4.0 -1.4   -0.2 0.3   0.2 0.1   1.3 0.8   0.7 1.6   -1.3
Std Dev 8.6   7.6 8.2   8.7 8.6   8.2 7.4   8.8 5.0   6.0 8.2   7.6 3.8   3.6 7.9   7.7

7am Morning Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 06Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 02-13-19 at 7:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-13-19 36   30 24   20 33   31 27   24 41   39 23   20 31   27 10   10
02-11-19 30 16.8 33 8 16.3 17 24   24 24   22 36   35 25   24 34   34 25   30
02-08-19 42 27.2 50 15 20.8 16 25 16.8 24 10 16.3 16 27   28 15   18 27   29 9   18
02-07-19 38 31.7 47 35 36.1 40 44 27.2 48 14 20.8 16 25 16.8 23 11 16.3 14 28   28 15   20
02-06-19 34 31.7 41 31 31.7 34 40 31.7 48 39 36.1 39 47 27.2 49 16 20.8 19 24 16.8 23 8 16.3 14
02-05-19 46 50.2 50 20 23.8 25 32 31.7 41 31 31.7 33 42 31.7 43 36 36.1 37 48 27.2 46 16 20.8 19
02-04-19 48 58.3 50 39 43.4 38 44 50.2 46 19 23.8 24 32 31.7 36 28 31.7 32 41 31.7 43 37 36.1 36
02-03-19 38 44.2 38 33 27.7 35 45 58.3 44 35 43.4 34 44 50.2 44 15 23.8 18 31 31.7 33 28 31.7 30
02-01-19 11 32.9 16 0 27.7 -1 28 44.2 27 19 27.7 21 33 58.3 35 33 43.4 29 46 50.2 43 36 23.8 33
01-31-19 8 20.9 8 -5 -3.7 -9 13 32.9 13 1 27.7 0 30 44.2 32 20 27.7 19 34 58.3 34 31 43.4 33
01-30-19 15 20.9 19 -8 -6.1 13 7 20.9 33 -4 -3.7 6 14 32.9 25 -2 27.7 15 25 44.2 34 18 27.7 4
01-25-19 28 25.7 27 9 29.5 5 19 20.9 19 13 -6.1 15 31 20.9 31 10 -3.7 6 16 32.9 16 10 27.7 8
01-24-19 41 40.4 43 21 25.7 18 25 25.7 24 5 29.5 7 18 20.9 19 12 -6.1 16 29 20.9 24 10 -3.7 18
01-23-19 38 40.4 33 38 37.1 32 42 40.4 43 22 25.7 18 23 25.7 26 6 29.5 7 17 20.9 17 8 -6.1 12
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 4 4 5 3 4 3 3 4 3 2 1 4 1 2 1 4
% Succ 30.8   30.8 38.5   23.1 33.3   25.0 25.0   33.3 27.3   18.2 9.1   36.4 10.0   20.0 10.0   40.0
Ave Error 7.9   9.3 6.6   8.9 8.9   10.6 9.4   9.5 10.8   9.6 11.4   9.2 11.5   10.3 9.8   10.9
Net Error -1.9   1.1 -5.7   -3.6 -3.1   0.8 -5.7   -3.7 -2.0   0.2 -5.7   -3.2 -2.4   -2.2 -1.6   -1.1
Std Dev 5.8   6.8 7.7   8.7 5.9   5.9 7.3   8.1 6.8   6.0 7.5   5.2 6.7   6.1 3.9   6.0

1pm Mid Day Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 12Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 02-18-19 at 1:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 22   26 4   2 22   21 8   9 28   30 25   24 41   41 24   24
02-13-19 30 29.8 32 21 17.4 21 33   33 27   25 41   40 23   20 31   28 10   12
02-12-19 17 16.8 19 31 16.3 34 22 29.8 23 33 17.4 33 26   27 40   40 25   20 31   28
02-11-19 29 30.7 30 9 20.8 15 24 16.8 23 24 16.3 22 36 29.8 34 25 17.4 22 34   34 25   30
02-10-19 26 27.2 28 14 20.8 19 28 30.7 31 8 20.8 18 27 16.8 24 25 16.3 22 37 29.8 34 25 17.4 23
02-05-19 47 24.5 47 21 17.6 24 33 27.2 42 31 20.8 34 42 30.7 43 36 20.8 36 48 16.8 46 16 16.3 19
02-04-19 49 58.3 59 39 43.4 40 44 24.5 48 19 17.6 25 32 27.2 38 28 20.8 32 41 30.7 41 37 20.8 36
02-03-19 37 44.2 36 33 27.7 32 45 58.3 44 35 43.4 33 44 24.5 43 15 17.6 19 31 27.2 35 28 20.8 30
01-31-19 7 32.9 9 -6 27.7 -11 13 44.2 12 1 27.7 -4 30 58.3 30 20 43.4 19 34 24.5 34 31 17.6 31
01-30-19 18 20.9 22 -8 -6.1 -7 7 32.9 7 -4 27.7 -9 14 44.2 13 -2 27.7 0 25 58.3 32 18 43.4 16
01-25-19 29 29.5 30 9 25.7 8 19 20.9 21 13 -6.1 16 31 32.9 32 10 27.7 6 16 44.2 22 10 27.7 13
01-24-19 41 40.4 40 21 25.7 19 25 29.5 25 5 25.7 8 18 20.9 19 12 -6.1 14 29 32.9 31 10 27.7 13
01-23-19 38 40.4 28 38 37.1 27 42 40.4 41 22 25.7 18 23 29.5 23 6 25.7 9 17 20.9 19 8 -6.1 15
01-22-19 18 15.4 16 12 6.1 8 39 40.4 33 36 37.1 32 37 40.4 38 19 25.7 17 24 29.5 19 4 25.7 4
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 9 9 4 5 4 3 2 1 3 3 1 1 0 2 1 1
% Succ 69.2   69.2 30.8   38.5 33.3   25.0 16.7   8.3 27.3   27.3 9.1   9.1     20.0 10.0   10.0
Ave Error 5.9   5.9 8.8   9.2 10.2   11.4 13.3   14.7 11.4   11.3 14.2   14.3 13.7   12.4 14.1   14.6
Net Error -1.9   -1.2 -3.6   -3.9 -4.6   -3.8 -4.3   -4.0 -1.9   -1.7 -3.9   -3.7 -1.3   -0.2 -2.4   -1.1
Std Dev 8.2   8.0 8.5   9.8 9.0   9.8 8.3   9.7 8.9   9.1 7.4   7.9 9.3   7.6 6.4   6.5

7pm Evening Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 18Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 02-18-19 at 7:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
02-18-19 4   2 22   21 8   10 28   30 25   25 41   40 24   24 36   34
02-12-19 17 17.4 15 31 29.8 32 22   22 33   32 26   25 40   40 25   20 31   27
02-10-19 15 20.8 21 28 16.8 31 9 17.4 18 23 29.8 24 23   23 34   35 24   20 33   28
02-08-19 14 17.6 16 24 27.2 25 11 20.8 16 27 16.8 28 14 17.4 18 27 29.8 31 9   20 29   28
02-06-19 31 39.7 30 38 36.1 45 37 17.6 38 41 27.2 47 15 20.8 16 22 16.8 22 10 17.4 14 28 29.8 28
02-05-19 22 23.8 23 33 31.7 41 31 39.7 34 42 36.1 42 36 17.6 37 48 27.2 46 17 20.8 19 25 16.8 23
02-03-19 35 43.4 34 48 50.2 44 38 23.8 34 40 31.7 44 18 39.7 20 32 36.1 36 29 17.6 31 38 27.2 42
02-01-19 -3 27.7 -2 27 44.2 28 22 43.4 23 37 50.2 35 32 23.8 31 44 31.7 42 36 39.7 34 44 36.1 40
01-30-19 -8 -3.7 -8 8 15.0 6 -5 27.7 -10 13 44.2 13 1 43.4 -1 29 50.2 32 19 23.8 14 35 31.7 32
01-23-19 38 25.7 28 41 20.9 40 22 -3.7 17 25 15.0 25 6 27.7 8 16 44.2 19 11 43.4 16 28 50.2 24
01-22-19 11 6.1 8 37 40.4 33 35 25.7 32 37 20.9 42 19 -3.7 17 24 15.0 22 4 27.7 4 17 44.2 15
01-21-19 -7 -4.8 -7 19 15.4 18 12 6.1 9 37 40.4 35 33 25.7 30 34 20.9 32 18 -3.7 18 24 15.0 20
01-20-19 -8 -10.6 -15 2 4.2 -2 -6 -4.8 -13 20 15.4 17 13 6.1 9 37 40.4 35 34 25.7 29 39 20.9 31
01-19-19 13 9.3 11 19 19.0 26 -10 -10.6 -9 3 4.2 1 -6 -4.8 -9 19 15.4 19 15 6.1 10 35 40.4 37
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 5 8 9 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 0 3 2 3
% Succ 38.5   61.5 69.2   23.1 16.7   25.0 16.7   16.7 18.2   18.2 27.3   27.3     30.0 20.0   30.0
Ave Error 6.9   5.4 5.7   8.5 13.1   11.6 10.4   11.9 14.5   13.4 11.2   9.6 12.6   11.4 11.4   10.1
Net Error -3.3   -4.5 0.3   1.2 -0.6   -1.2 1.1   1.8 -3.0   -3.4 0.4   0.8 -2.6   -3.0 0.1   -2.0
Std Dev 7.5   7.5 6.0   5.0 8.0   10.1 6.9   7.4 10.5   11.3 7.6   7.3 8.0   6.7 5.4   7.1

Script credited to Jim at jcweather.us.
Dual Image forecast icons credited to Ken at Saratoga-Weather.org.