Albany, NY WFO Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion for ALY NWS Office
FXUS61 KALY 211747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
147 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

A coastal storm will brush far southeastern parts of the region with
some snow for later today into tonight, otherwise, it will remain
cold across the region with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Aside
from a passing flurry, mainly dry and continued chilly weather is
expected for tomorrow through the weekend.


As 1220 PM EDT, just some patchy very light snow has reached
the ground thus far close to or south of I-84 in Dutchess CO,
and extreme southern Litchfield CO.

Latest regional radars actually depict a southward trend in
snowfall across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT over the last
hour, as a deep dry layer persists, and overall forcing remains
fairly weak.

At this point, have decreased PoPs considerably through early to
mid afternoon across southern areas, with little or no snow
expected through at least 3 PM, if not later - perhaps not
reaching POU and points N and W, as well as northern Litchfield
CO, until closer to sunset.

Eventually, we expect bands of snow to approach from the east
and southeast, expanding into SE areas around and especially
after sunset. Still expect periods of moderate to locally heavy
snow to occur this evening and tonight close to the I-84
corridor, and across eastern Litchfield CO.

So, the main forcing of both the surface low and upper level
low will remain fairly far south of our area. As a result, only
our far southern counties will be seeing snowfall from this
storm, and it likely take until closer to sunset for precip to
pick up in intensity, as the steadiest and heavier snowfall will
remain further south across NJ and the NYC area.

However, by evening, heavier snowfall should be ongoing for the
mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT, as the surface low gets a little
closer and some heavier bands make it into the region. Light
snow may even make it as far north as southern suburbs of the
Capital Region and into the Taconics, Berkshires and southern VT
too. With some mesoscale banding expected (as shown in the 00z
HREF), some snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be
possible across Dutchess and Litchfield Counties, which will
make for difficult travel across this area. Further north, it
will just remain mostly cloudy and chilly for the remainder of
the area for today into tonight.

Snow will be tapering off tonight from west to east, although
it may linger across western New England for much of the
overnight hours. Snowfall intensity will be greatest through
about midnight, but then should be decreasing.

As expected with a coastal storm like this, there will be a
sharp north-to-south gradient of total snowfall amounts,
especially across Dutchess/Litchfield Counties. These types of
gradients make for tricky snowfall forecast, with big bust
potential in/near the gradient area. Based on collab with WPC,
neighboring offices and closely examining deterministic and
ensemble output, we are forecasting amounts to range from 3-7
inches in northern parts of Dutchess/Litchfield Counties to 6-10
in southern areas. A few spots across southeastern Litchfield
County near the New Haven County border will see around a foot
of snowfall. The northern edge of the accumulating snowfall may
be right across the Capital Region, where a coating to half inch
can be expected, especially for those areas south/east of the
city of Albany.

High temps today will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s and
overnight lows tonight will mainly be in the 20s.


Mainly dry and quiet weather is expected through the short term

The departing storm on Thursday will continue to allow for
brisk conditions, thanks to the strong pressure gradient in
place. However, it should be dry, but cold for late March, with
temps stuck in the 30s. Overnight lows on Thursday night will be
in the 20s with partly cloudy conditions and still a little

During the day on Friday, there could be a few light showers or
flurries, especially for the higher elevations, as a fast moving
upper level low slides by to the southwest. This upper level low
will be swinging around the broad trough in place over the
Northeast behind the departing storm. However, moisture will be
very limited, so little snowfall is expected. A dusting is
possible for high terrain areas, but precip looks fairly light
and spotty. Highs will be in the 30s once again. Dry and quiet
weather is expected for Friday night with lows in the teens and


Overall guidance is in agreement regarding the longwave pattern
with a lingering trough over the Northeast for the weekend with
ridging building in early in the week. While at the surface,
cold Canadian high pressure from over Hudson`s Bay is expected
to shift southward through the period dominating our weather.
Mainly fair weather is expected for the period; there could be
a few showers Saturday night and/or snow as the upper level
swings through. The southern stream system originating from the
Plains is expected to weaken as it moves eastward across the
Southeastern United States over the weekend and encounters the
strong ridge.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend,
however early next week with abundant sunshine temperatures are
expected to warm seasonable levels for late March/early Spring
with highs mainly in the 40s by Tuesday.


Light to moderate snow showers will very slowly make their way
into the southern portions of the mid-Hudson valley this
afternoon and evening as a coastal low continues to strengthen.
These snow showers will impact KPOU first, then eventually move
towards KPSF late tonight. CIGS are expected to lower throughout
the event but can also expect lower VISBYs within any heavier
snow shower. There is still the possibility that not much snow
makes it to either of the TAF sites but still trended CIGS down
this evening/overnight.

North to northeasterly winds will continue through the TAF
period with gusts up to 20-25 knots possible. Winds will be the
strongest at KPOU and KPSF.


Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.


The Fire Weather season has officially begun across eastern New
York and western New England. Despite this, snow cover is in
place across much of the region, which will mitigate any
potential fire weather hazards for the time being. Additional
snowfall is expected today into tonight for southeastern parts
of the area which will continue to prevent issues in the near
future as well.

A coastal storm will brush far southeastern parts of the region with
some snow for later today into tonight, otherwise, it will remain
cold across the region with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Aside
from a passing flurry, mainly dry and continued chilly weather is
expected for tomorrow through the weekend.


No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week.

Although northern areas will stay dry today into tonight, areas
south and east of the Capital Region will see some snow for
today into tonight, with the heaviest amounts across Dutchess
and Litchfield counties. Total liquid equivalent in these areas
will be up to nine tenths of an inch, although areas outside
Dutchess and Litchfield Counties will generally see less than a
third of an inch. This snowfall won`t have any immediate impact
on area rivers and streams.

Behind this storm system, mainly dry weather is then expected
for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. There could
be a few passing snow showers or flurries for Friday through
Sunday, but this will produce little to no measurable

A slow diurnal snowmelt is expected over the next several days,
with temperatures above freezing during the day, and below
freezing at night. There will be little impact on the waterways
with minimal, if any, rises.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.


CT...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ061-063-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ065-066.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MAZ025.


NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL/JVM/Wasula

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion