NWS Forecast
Sun, 21-Oct-2018 12:22
This
Afternoon
This Afternoon: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Monday

Monday: Slight Chance Snow Showers
Slight Chance Snow Showers
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
Mostly Cloudy then Chance Rain Showers
Tuesday

Tuesday: Chance Rain Showers
Chance Rain Showers
Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
Wednesday

Wednesday: Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers
Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Slight Chance Rain Showers then Mostly Cloudy
Thursday

Thursday: Mostly Sunny
Mostly Sunny
Hi 39 °FLo 28 °FHi 48 °FLo 37 °FHi 48 °FLo 35 °FHi 44 °FLo 27 °FHi 40 °F
 
OUR Forecast
13:00
This
afternoon
Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Tonight

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Monday

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Monday
night
Mostly Cloudy
Mostly Cloudy
Tuesday

Chance rain
Chance rain
Tuesday
night
Fog late
Fog late
Wednesday

Fog a.m.
Fog a.m.
Wednesday
night
Fog
Cold!
Fog
Cold!
Thursday

Fog a.m.
Cold!
Fog a.m.
Cold!
High: 39°Low: 27°High: 46°Low: 37°High: 49°Low: 35°High: 40°Low: 25°High: 37°


NWS & Our Forecast Comparison for Hessville, NY

National Weather Service Forecast (NW), Actual Observed (Act), Our Forecast (WS)

2am Overnight Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 00Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 10-21-18 at 2:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-21-18 32   36 39   39 29   31 46   48 37   38 48   49 35   36 44   40
10-20-18 47 50.5 47 53 57.6 54 32   37 38   38 29   29 46   46 38   39 48   48
10-19-18 31 34.3 34 58 62.2 57 43 50.5 43 53 57.6 53 33   34 40   37 28   29 44   47
10-18-18 28 29.8 29 39 41.5 39 31 34.3 31 55 62.2 56 43 50.5 40 52 57.6 53 31   34 41   37
10-17-18 39 36.3 38 48 52.3 51 28 29.8 28 40 41.5 39 30 34.3 31 57 62.2 55 42 50.5 40 53 57.6 52
10-16-18 38 38.3 37 49 51.7 48 39 36.3 38 49 52.3 50 28 29.8 28 41 41.5 38 32 34.3 28 57 62.2 54
10-15-18 40 37.9 40 60 62.1 58 40 38.3 38 49 51.7 48 40 36.3 34 45 52.3 49 29 29.8 27 41 41.5 38
10-14-18 37 38.8 38 56 57.9 55 41 37.9 40 55 62.1 55 39 38.3 38 49 51.7 46 38 36.3 36 46 52.3 46
10-13-18 40 40.6 41 48 50.2 46 35 38.8 36 55 57.9 54 40 37.9 39 55 62.1 52 40 38.3 34 48 51.7 46
10-12-18 49 48.1 49 52 50.9 53 41 40.6 40 47 50.2 47 38 38.8 36 54 57.9 54 42 37.9 40 52 62.1 52
10-11-18 66 63.9 67 70 71.8 71 49 48.1 52 51 50.9 53 40 40.6 42 47 50.2 47 37 38.8 38 54 57.9 51
10-10-18 64 67.2 66 76 80.1 78 63 63.9 66 71 71.8 73 50 48.1 53 52 50.9 54 39 40.6 42 49 50.2 48
10-09-18 57 56.1 59 78 80.5 76 64 67.2 64 77 80.1 78 62 63.9 65 70 71.8 73 48 48.1 52 53 50.9 54
10-08-18 53 49.6 51 63 56.8 66 60 56.1 54 76 80.5 77 64 67.2 61 76 80.1 77 64 63.9 64 71 71.8 71
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 13 13 8 7 9 10 8 7 8 8 5 6 8 6 4 4
% Succ 100.0   100.0 61.5   53.8 75.0   83.3 66.7   58.3 72.7   72.7 45.5   54.5 80.0   60.0 40.0   40.0
Ave Error 2.0   1.6 3.1   3.6 2.8   2.6 3.4   3.5 2.6   3.2 3.9   4.4 2.3   3.3 3.8   5.2
Net Error -0.2   0.4 -2.0   -1.8 -0.7   -1.0 -3.4   -3.0 -1.1   -1.7 -3.7   -3.7 -0.7   -1.8 -3.4   -4.6
Std Dev 1.0   1.0 1.1   1.3 1.8   1.8 2.1   1.6 1.9   2.6 1.9   2.0 2.1   2.7 2.4   1.9

7am Morning Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 06Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 10-21-18 at 7:00 am
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-21-18 39   40 28   29 48   48 37   35 48   49 35   35 44   40 27   28
10-20-18 55 57.6 56 32 33.8 38 39   39 28   30 46   46 37   39 49   50 34   35
10-19-18 58 62.2 59 44 50.5 44 54 57.6 54 32 33.8 34 39   38 29   31 46   46 37   39
10-18-18 40 41.5 42 31 34.3 31 57 62.2 57 43 50.5 40 53 57.6 53 32 33.8 34 40   38 28   29
10-17-18 48 52.3 53 28 29.8 29 39 41.5 40 33 34.3 32 54 62.2 55 43 50.5 41 52 57.6 51 33 33.8 32
10-16-18 49 51.7 50 40 36.3 37 47 52.3 49 29 29.8 27 40 41.5 39 32 34.3 31 54 62.2 54 42 50.5 39
10-15-18 59 62.1 58 37 38.3 37 49 51.7 48 40 36.3 34 45 52.3 49 29 29.8 28 40 41.5 38 32 34.3 30
10-14-18 56 57.9 57 41 37.9 41 55 62.1 55 38 38.3 40 50 51.7 48 39 36.3 38 46 52.3 44 29 29.8 27
10-13-18 48 50.2 46 35 38.8 35 55 57.9 53 38 37.9 37 54 62.1 51 39 38.3 35 49 51.7 46 38 36.3 36
10-12-18 51 50.9 54 41 40.6 41 47 50.2 47 37 38.8 35 53 57.9 55 42 37.9 40 53 62.1 51 40 38.3 35
10-11-18 72 71.8 71 49 48.1 52 52 50.9 54 41 40.6 42 47 50.2 46 38 38.8 38 54 57.9 52 42 37.9 41
10-10-18 76 80.1 80 64 63.9 67 72 71.8 72 49 48.1 52 51 50.9 53 41 40.6 42 49 50.2 48 36 38.8 37
10-09-18 76 80.5 78 63 67.2 68 75 80.1 78 64 63.9 66 69 71.8 72 48 48.1 53 52 50.9 55 39 40.6 40
10-08-18 61 56.8 64 60 56.1 54 76 80.5 76 64 67.2 61 77 80.1 76 64 63.9 64 70 71.8 70 48 48.1 50
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 8 10 8 9 7 7 10 8 6 5 9 9 5 3 8 8
% Succ 61.5   76.9 61.5   69.2 58.3   58.3 83.3   66.7 54.5   45.5 81.8   81.8 50.0   30.0 80.0   80.0
Ave Error 2.7   2.4 2.7   2.6 3.6   3.5 1.8   3.2 4.1   4.2 1.9   2.6 4.1   5.7 2.4   3.1
Net Error -2.0   -0.6 -0.8   -0.1 -3.4   -3.0 -1.0   -1.6 -4.1   -3.8 -0.5   -0.8 -3.9   -4.9 -0.9   -2.1
Std Dev 1.4   1.4 1.7   1.7 1.8   1.7 1.9   2.5 2.3   2.4 1.9   2.3 2.4   2.2 2.1   2.9

1pm Mid Day Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 12Z

High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm. Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am
Updated: 10-21-18 at 1:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-21-18 39   39 28   27 48   46 37   37 48   49 35   35 44   40 27   25
10-20-18 55 57.6 53 32 33.8 36 39   38 28   27 46   46 37   37 49   50 34   35
10-19-18 58 62.2 58 44 50.5 44 54 57.6 53 32 33.8 34 39   39 29   28 46   47 37   40
10-18-18 43 41.5 39 31 34.3 29 57 62.2 56 43 50.5 41 53 57.6 52 32 33.8 33 40   39 28   29
10-17-18 49 52.3 44 28 29.8 28 39 41.5 39 33 34.3 30 54 62.2 55 43 50.5 42 52 57.6 53 33 33.8 32
10-16-18 49 51.7 49 40 36.3 37 47 52.3 50 29 29.8 27 40 41.5 38 32 34.3 30 54 62.2 55 42 50.5 39
10-15-18 59 62.1 52 37 38.3 35 49 51.7 47 40 36.3 34 45 52.3 48 29 29.8 27 40 41.5 38 32 34.3 28
10-14-18 56 57.9 56 40 37.9 40 57 62.1 58 38 38.3 37 50 51.7 47 39 36.3 36 46 52.3 42 29 29.8 26
10-13-18 48 50.2 48 35 38.8 36 55 57.9 54 38 37.9 39 54 62.1 54 39 38.3 37 49 51.7 47 38 36.3 37
10-12-18 52 50.9 50 41 40.6 39 47 50.2 45 37 38.8 35 53 57.9 55 42 37.9 39 53 62.1 51 40 38.3 37
10-11-18 72 71.8 72 49 48.1 52 52 50.9 53 41 40.6 41 47 50.2 47 38 38.8 38 54 57.9 53 42 37.9 41
10-10-18 77 80.1 78 64 63.9 66 72 71.8 71 49 48.1 51 51 50.9 52 41 40.6 42 49 50.2 47 36 38.8 38
10-09-18 79 80.5 79 63 67.2 65 75 80.1 77 64 63.9 65 69 71.8 73 48 48.1 53 52 50.9 54 39 40.6 41
10-08-18 58 56.8 59 58 56.1 54 76 80.5 75 64 67.2 61 77 80.1 76 64 63.9 63 70 71.8 69 48 48.1 49
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 12 9 9 10 7 5 10 8 6 5 9 8 5 4 8 7
% Succ 92.3   69.2 69.2   76.9 58.3   41.7 83.3   66.7 54.5   45.5 81.8   72.7 50.0   40.0 80.0   70.0
Ave Error 2.2   3.3 2.4   2.8 3.5   3.8 1.8   3.0 4.1   4.2 1.9   2.5 4.1   5.5 2.4   3.1
Net Error -1.6   -3.0 -1.0   -1.1 -3.2   -3.4 -1.0   -2.0 -4.1   -3.8 -0.5   -1.1 -3.9   -4.9 -0.9   -2.0
Std Dev 1.0   2.7 1.7   1.5 1.5   1.4 1.9   2.3 2.3   1.6 1.9   2.2 2.4   2.5 2.1   3.0

7pm Evening Forecast - Comparison - Our Forecast based on GFS 18Z

Low Temp is captured between 9pm - 9am. High Temp is captured between 9am - 9pm
Updated: 10-20-18 at 7:00 pm
Goal Current 24 Hour Forecast Period +1 +2 +3
± 3.6° F Low High Low High Low High Low High
Date NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
10-20-18 32   38 39   40 29   31 46   48 37   39 48   49 35   36 44   40
10-19-18 47 50.5 48 53 57.6 56 32   36 38   39 29   28 46   46 38   40 48   49
10-18-18 31 34.3 31 58 62.2 55 43 50.5 42 53 57.6 53 33   34 40   37 28   29 44   49
10-17-18 28 29.8 27 39 41.5 39 31 34.3 29 55 62.2 55 43 50.5 40 52 57.6 54 31   33 41   38
10-16-18 38 36.3 37 48 52.3 50 28 29.8 28 40 41.5 39 30 34.3 31 57 62.2 55 42 50.5 39 53 57.6 51
10-15-18 38 38.3 39 49 51.7 49 39 36.3 36 49 52.3 48 28 29.8 28 41 41.5 39 32 34.3 30 57 62.2 53
10-14-18 39 37.9 37 60 62.1 59 40 38.3 37 49 51.7 47 40 36.3 34 45 52.3 45 29 29.8 27 41 41.5 39
10-13-18 36 38.8 37 56 57.9 54 41 37.9 39 55 62.1 53 39 38.3 36 49 51.7 47 38 36.3 37 46 52.3 49
10-12-18 40 40.6 40 48 50.2 46 35 38.8 36 55 57.9 55 40 37.9 39 55 62.1 50 40 38.3 33 48 51.7 46
10-11-18 48 48.1 51 52 50.9 53 41 40.6 41 47 50.2 46 38 38.8 37 54 57.9 53 42 37.9 40 52 62.1 50
10-10-18 65 63.9 66 73 71.8 72 49 48.1 52 51 50.9 53 40 40.6 42 47 50.2 48 37 38.8 39 54 57.9 51
10-09-18 65 67.2 66 79 80.1 78 63 63.9 66 71 71.8 74 50 48.1 52 52 50.9 54 39 40.6 42 49 50.2 47
10-08-18 56 56.1 54 78 80.5 74 64 67.2 62 77 80.1 78 62 63.9 64 70 71.8 70 48 48.1 51 53 50.9 52
10-07-18 54 49.6 53 64 56.8 67 61 56.1 56 77 80.5 77 64 67.2 60 76 80.1 76 64 63.9 63 71 71.8 71
Results NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS NW Act WS
# Succ 12 13 9 8 9 8 9 6 8 8 5 5 8 7 4 5
% Succ 92.3   100.0 69.2   61.5 75.0   66.7 75.0   50.0 72.7   72.7 45.5   45.5 80.0   70.0 40.0   50.0
Ave Error 1.8   1.9 2.9   3.7 2.9   2.7 3.3   4.1 2.6   3.2 3.9   4.9 2.3   3.2 3.8   5.1
Net Error -0.5   -0.4 -1.4   -1.8 -0.6   -1.5 -3.3   -3.4 -1.1   -2.1 -3.7   -4.3 -0.7   -1.8 -3.4   -4.9
Std Dev 1.1   0.9 1.2   1.9 1.8   2.2 2.1   2.0 1.9   2.5 1.9   2.7 2.1   2.9 2.4   2.8

Script credited to Jim at jcweather.us.
Dual Image forecast icons credited to Ken at Saratoga-Weather.org.